tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32721430745983546232024-03-12T16:35:16.747-07:00嘴皮子的財經悅讀室(轉載 請註明出處)Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.comBlogger345125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-43197229427102025032016-06-23T02:49:00.002-07:002016-06-23T19:40:41.110-07:00《真希望我20歲就懂的事》<b>《真希望我20歲就懂的事》</b><br />
希莉格(Tina Seelig)教創意,因此《真希望我20歲就懂的事》這本書包含2大部分:<br />
1.談創意教學(CH1-4)<br />
2.「成功學」(CH5-10)<br />
我個人特別喜歡以下3章:<br />
01 拍賣史丹佛學生──買1送2<br />
05 準備好你的失敗履歷表<br />
06 享受人生的意外旅程── 找到自己興趣、能力和市場需求的交集<br />
<br />
天下的這篇採訪剛好是本書最佳導讀<br />
<a href="http://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5062618">http://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5062618</a><br />
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希莉格說:「.書中.有3件事情我覺得特別重要:<br />
<b>第1,創造自己的運氣。</b><br />
...除了「愈努力就會愈幸運」外,還有很多別的做法會帶來好運氣。例如透過對各種事務的投入、跳脫舒適圈、培養興趣,就可以創造好運氣。<br />
<b>第2,大部份的規則都只是建議。</b><br />
<b>第3,接受失敗。</b><br />
...我不喜歡「失敗」這個詞。就算實驗結果「不如預期」,科學家還是會把結果當成數據,把失敗當成數據來研究,可以學到很多。<br />
...<br />
史丹佛和矽谷能成功,其中一個原因是有非常多成功的範例。其他人看到他們的故事,會覺得自己也做得到。<br />
問題是,人們總是看到矽谷,卻看不見自己身邊的典範。如此一來就會輕易地說:「我做不到,是因為我不在矽谷。」<br />
「和台灣比起來,矽谷很小、以色列小,我還以為你要說台灣是個大地方!」你絕對可以在所處的環境中,做一樣的事情,特別是在台灣這麼有活力的地方。<br />
最後最重要的是在社會中找出創新、有創業精神的人,並給予掌聲。<br />
<br />
【本書不錯的簡報檔與摘要】<br />
<a href="http://www.slideshare.net/unclegarlic/20-9263967">http://www.slideshare.net/unclegarlic/20-9263967</a><br />
<a href="http://www.slideshare.net/ErickWu501/20-xx-41244406">http://www.slideshare.net/ErickWu501/20-xx-41244406</a><br />
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<br />Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-15239768255080297202016-03-08T23:19:00.000-08:002016-03-08T23:26:28.742-08:002015/11/07 白小帆:對不起,我不是個善良的人總會有那麼多人,完全不問事由,就自顧自的站到看上去比較弱勢的那一方去。<br />
<br />
做一個「善良」的人,要比做一個「講道理」的人輕鬆。你只要站在看上去可憐的那一邊就好了。而我選擇不做一個「善良」的人,我要做一個講道理、也負責任的人。<br />
<br />
世上有些東西,起因比結果重要,比如追尋夢想。而有些事情,結果永遠比原因重要,比如傷害別人。<br />
...<br />
<span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.read-life.com/2015/11/07/admin-350/">http://www.read-life.com/2015/11/07/admin-350/</a></span><br />
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Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-466202340355424702016-02-25T08:21:00.000-08:002016-02-25T18:09:16.334-08:00傾聽<div>
「...我都替他著想。」小如幽幽地說。</div>
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「重點不在妳替他著想,而是妳要<span style="background-color: yellow;">聽他說</span>。」我說。</div>
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「妳替他想,終究是你想。做他想要你做的,才是他想的,差一點差很多。」</div>
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.</div>
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愛侶、家庭、公司,任何團體組織,甚至專案都一樣,</div>
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都需要有人領導,有人配合。</div>
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不同情境,不同角色扮演,故領導者非恆領導。</div>
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但不論「領導」或「被領導」,都要先學會「聽」。</div>
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.</div>
<div>
要對方先聽妳你說,事情也許快在前面,但一定慢在後面。</div>
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能聽對方先說(除非對方沒想法),事情也許慢在前面,但一定快在後面。</div>
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別讓效率成為你「不想聽」的藉口,</div>
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若老是以批判者自居,將導致工作牛步化,與他人和自己的溝通也愈來愈困難。</div>
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.</div>
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與他人<span style="color: red;">溝通的4步驟:接收、賞識、總結、提問。</span></div>
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戒掉「停,停,聽我說。」的口頭禪,</div>
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轉換成「請慢說」試試看。</div>
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.</div>
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不同的場合,唱不同的角,</div>
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我們要<span style="color: red;">學會「領導」,同時也要能接受「被領導」</span>。<br />
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“<span style="background-color: yellow;">人人都要敏於聆聽,不急於説話,不急於動怒</span>。”(雅各書 1:19) </div>
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“<span style="background-color: yellow;">人心裏的思想好像深處的水,明辨事理的人卻能汲引出來</span>。”(箴言20:5)</div>
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羅門王説:“<span style="background-color: yellow;">未聽先答,就是愚蠢羞辱</span>。”(箴言18:14)</div>
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“<span style="background-color: yellow;">愛能凡事包容,凡事相信,凡事盼望,凡事忍耐</span>。”(哥林多前書14:4‐7)</div>
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Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-66552145044470828692016-02-22T04:39:00.000-08:002016-02-25T08:23:55.735-08:00也談閱讀的一些淺見(3)-- 讓重要新聞自己來敲門也就是平日,我不追蹤新聞,讓重要新聞自己來敲門,<br />
把時間空出來看書、或閱讀專欄。<br />
畢竟資訊太氾濫,而時間有限。<br />
<br />
現在網路、電視媒體24小時都在推播新聞,你不必太主動,多少還是有新聞會跑到你的耳裡。<br />
<span style="color: red;">首先,如果是重大消息,媒體自然會反覆誦唸,你也會被耳提面命到</span>。<br />
<span style="color: red;">其次,你可以向求證股市</span>。<br />
如果當天股市沒什麼波動,隔天你大可把今天聽到的都忘掉。<br />
如果當天股市有大波動,再來判斷,<br />
相關的新聞事件是因?還是果?是觸媒?還是骨牌?找出市場真正的擔憂?<br />
這就是我所謂「<span style="background-color: yellow;">讓重要新聞自己來敲門</span>」。<br />
<br />
記者的責任在轉播,而不是告訴你真相,他們能對老板交差就不錯了。<br />
因此,也鮮少有媒體能能報導出有價值的新聞。<br />
新聞爆炸,若你花時間貼近盤面,保證得不償失。<br />
<br />
譬如,<br />
2015/09/11 中國裁軍30萬 ...重不重要?<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>.<br />
參考一下當天股市,沒啥波動,那就算了。<br />
<br />
但當天不重要,並不代表它不會醞釀成風暴。<br />
下回分享「抓蝴蝶」的眉角。<br />
<br />
*股市有情緒也有理性,善用股市的理性部分,能幫我們分憂解勞。<br />
*「抓蝴蝶」取自蝴蝶效應。<br />
<br />
祝元宵快樂。來,聽歌...<br />
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<a href="https://www.facebook.com/danielaandrade/videos/10153323382794141/">https://www.facebook.com/danielaandrade/videos/10153323382794141/</a></div>
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Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-66744374871533413842016-02-21T02:36:00.006-08:002016-02-23T11:03:22.932-08:00也談閱讀的一些淺見(2)-- 擁抱差異有其必要<span style="font-family: times, 'times new roman', serif;">資訊爆炸,但時間有限。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">若是閱讀書本,則可採用「跳讀」方式,忽略沒興趣或自認熟悉(且與作者高度共識)的主題。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">若是網路新聞,則可使用搜索引擎(如Google)做主題式篩選。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">但千萬不要忘了,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">所謂<span style="background-color: yellow;">篩選</span>(「跳讀」或下「關鍵字」)<span style="background-color: yellow;">本身就是一種偏見</span>,其作用猶如「社群」-- 物以類聚,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">我們排除異己而不自知,有如進入自己的「迴音室」,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">自我激勵,讓自己變笨,逐漸遠離事實。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">因此我們必須抗拒自己的傾向,<span style="color: red;">隨時向新訊息開放</span>,不能只跟同類相處,學習擁抱差異(雖然困難)。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">* <span style="color: red;">主題式 圖片搜尋,更容易找到好新聞喔</span>。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">* 善用搜尋引擎,以Google的命令為例,有 空格(&)、+(條件增加)、-(條件排除)、""(完全匹配)、*(通用)...等。讀者可Google到更多相關題材。</span><br />
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Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-69100212315733982762016-02-21T00:46:00.005-08:002016-02-23T11:04:25.043-08:00也談閱讀的一些淺見(1)-- 記者常誤導你<div style="color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; text-align: -webkit-auto;">舉新聞閱讀為例,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">網路時代,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">網路與傳統媒體競相爭奪眼球,貧乏內容卻常被貫上聳動標題;</span></div>
<div style="color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">有些標題與內容風馬牛不相及,卻也能在網路上博得網友高度按讚。</span></div>
<div style="color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">新聞不惜誤導,粗糙加工,語不驚人死不休,書上也説這是技巧。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">顯然<span style="color: red;">目前的多元化,並未帶來相對品質與服務的提升</span>。</span></div>
<div style="color: black;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="color: black;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">相因相成,讀者也急需提高自己新聞閱讀的拆解能力,</span></div>
<div style="color: black;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">來適應媒體新亂象,或乾脆「遠離媒體」,也是不錯的選擇。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">譬如</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">2016-02-19 </span><b>救經濟 歐洲3月上旬擴大寬鬆</b> @經濟日報</span></div>
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<a href="http://udn.com/news/story/6811/1511177"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://udn.com/news/story/6811/1511177</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">受中國等新興經濟體成長減速,歐元區經濟展望也轉趨黯淡。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">ECB:3/10日下次的會議「檢討並可能重新考慮」現行的刺激計畫。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">明顯是標題太過,加個問號,恐怕會好一點。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">又如</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">2016/02/17 </span><b>看法兩極!巴菲特殺進石油股、索羅斯縮手略減碼</b> @MoneyDJ</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.moneydj.com/KMDJ/News/NewsViewer.aspx?a=47f73f0e-549e-4d2c-aa79-f54a9bec3e4b"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://www.moneydj.com/KMDJ/News/NewsViewer.aspx?a=47f73f0e-549e-4d2c-aa79-f54a9bec3e4b</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">記者巧妙利用對照,突顯大師間看法矛盾。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">巴老看多沒有問題,將索老併成對照組,似乎就影射他看空。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">但閱讀內容,大師的意圖顯然也沒那麼明顯,減碼也許是看空,也也許是有更好的投資標地(轉進)。</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "courier new";">讀者若能先分開獨立解讀,看法應較客觀,以</span><span style="color: red; font-family: "courier new";">避開記者善意的加工</span><span style="font-family: "courier new";">。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "courier new";"><br /></span></span>Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-82864849472611131212016-01-21T07:41:00.000-08:002016-01-22T02:01:59.606-08:00尋找「台灣夢」<b>尋找「台灣夢」</b><br />
前幾天Peter分享了網路正廣傳的「小鄧遺囑」,也不知是真是假,不過寫得還真不賴。<br />
<a href="http://blog.xuite.net/linmark.alumni/blog/307925445">http://blog.xuite.net/linmark.alumni/blog/307925445</a><br />
<br />
我突然想起之前看過「美國夢」、「中國夢」,那「台灣夢」呢?<br />
遜斃了,我竟然說不出來。<br />
偷偷告訴你,還真Google不到(如果你知道,請告訴我)。<br />
那「<span style="color: #cc0000;">有夢最美,希望相隨</span>」,難道只是1998年詩人<b>路寒袖</b>所堆砌美麗的廣告詞彙嗎?<br />
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<b>「美國夢」</b><br />
「美國夢」來自19世紀一種相信只要努力奮鬥,便能在美國獲致更好生活的信仰。...歐巴馬11月連任總統時再次重申「美國夢」就是要讓「<span style="background-color: yellow;">每個人都有同樣的機會,不論出身、來歷、長相、以及所愛的是誰,只要努力工作就可以取得成功</span>」。<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><b>「中國夢」</b><br />
<b>2個百年、3個必須</b><br />
聽說是受了美國學者 <b>庫恩</b>(Robert Lawrennce Kuhn)的提醒,庫恩直指中國大陸內部問題重重:貧富不均、城鄉不均、環境汙染、官員腐敗、醫療保險、住房、農民工、工資...和<span style="color: red;">傳統價值觀崩壞</span>等。他警告,當前中國大陸面臨的內部問題極為可能導致中國大陸經濟面臨15年來最大之改革風險與阻力。<br />
2012/11/29日,習總書記把「中國夢」定義為「實現中華民族偉大復興,就是中華民族近代以來最偉大夢想」。<br />
所謂中華民族的偉大復興,具體表現是國家富強、民族振興、人民幸福,實現途徑是走中國特色的社會主義道路、堅持中國特色社會主義理論體系、弘揚民族精神、凝聚中國力量,實施手段是政治、經濟、文化、社會、生態文明5位一體建設。<br />
到中國共產黨成立100(1921+100=<span style="color: red;">2021</span>)年時,全面建成「小康」社會的目標一定能實現。<br />
到新中國成立100年(1949+100=<span style="color: red;">2049</span>)年時,建成富強「民主」文明和諧的社會主義現代化國家的目標一定能實現,中華民族偉大復興的夢想一定能實現。(@喔...有點嚴肅)<br />
<br />
<b>「台灣夢」</b><br />
中國夢具有理性結構。跟美國夢相比,美國夢充滿感性,容許各種聯想。「台灣夢」是什麼?<span style="color: red;">什麼是台灣的普世價值?</span><br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;">「台灣夢」應和美國夢類似,</span>(以下來自我喜歡的作家RusRule)<span style="background-color: yellow;">要建構在一個長久以來的價值: 只要你努力, 你就會出頭天。或是台灣的諺語: 只要甘願作牛 免驚無犁可拖...。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Note: 犁不見得指得是 勞力,而是一種唾手可得 公平的機會,只要你願意 。</span><br />
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Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-90929397922402093162016-01-08T18:50:00.001-08:002016-01-12T01:58:47.319-08:00《反脆弱 摘要》黑天鵝的啟示1:歸納法的問題 <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><u><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《反脆弱 </span></b></u></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><u><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><u><b>摘要</b></u></span></span>》黑天鵝的啟示1:歸納法的問題 </span></b></u></span><br />
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</xml><![endif]--></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@</span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《反脆弱</span></b></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">》</span></b></span>絕對不是一本單純談投資的書,雖然它可能源於技術,卻轉向哲學,但絕非玩弄文字遊戲,是為了要深入心靈思維的根本,Taleb 提醒我們對 過度現代化、科學化、理性主義、專家化、制度化、學術化…保持警戒。<br />
作者解決問題的方法讓我激賞,他先從哲學層次選擇夠好的方法,再探討實務面。<br />
例如他了解歸納法的侷限性,了解預測不可行,他選擇試誤法、減法,善用「時間」,一步一步,力求嚴謹。</div>
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<![endif]-->每個人都會死,這是一個真命題,蘇格拉底是人,我們能推出蘇格拉底必然會死,這是<b>演繹</b>法。過去看到的天鵝都是白的,歸納出來天鵝就應該是白的<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]-->。<span style="background-color: yellow;">演繹法從真命題出發,歸納法從歷史現象出發,它們是根本對立的2種思維方式。</span><br />
.<br />
<b>在不確定的時</b><b>代</b><b><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">,</span>學習做非預測性決策</b> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.17)理解反脆弱性的機制,我們可以建立起系統性且寬廣的指導方針,在商業、政治、醫療和一般生活中不確定的情況下,做出非預測性的決定(在未知占優勢的任何地方,在充滿機、無法預測、不透明,或我們對事物的了解不完整的任何情況中,都能做出決定)。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.17)研判某樣東西是否脆弱,遠比預測發生某件事可能傷害它要容易。脆弱性是可以衡量的;風險則無法衡量。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><u><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b>Taleb 的哲學架構 </b></span></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@<b>決定論</b>和<b>自由意志</b>(@<b>目的論</b>)者之間的論戰,從古希臘時期開始延燒迄今,仍是哲學家好辯論的議題。<b>決定論</b>認為所有狀態的產生完全被在它之前發生的狀態決定。<b>自由意志論</b>(@<b>目的論</b>)卻認為人類的意志是做出行為、達成道德價值的必要而終極的基礎。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><u><b>反決定論</b></u>(Determinism) </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@<span style="color: red;">事出必有因</span>。決定論的意思是說,存在有一些條件,如果這些條件都被滿足,那麼,那件事情就必定會發生。(因果)...2戰後,科學家與哲學家都相信科學研究的方法是「<span style="color: red;">找出證據來</span><span style="color: red;">支持你的假說</span>」。 <br />. <br /><b>歸納法的問題</b> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@如果你
想證明所有天鵝都是白色的,你就會去觀察一大堆白色天鵝。...這種推論方式是從「我見過的所有天鵝都是白色」推到結論「所有天鵝都是白色」(歸納法)。
但就算你已經看過數千萬隻白天鵝,這句話還是有可能是錯的。因為只要有1隻黑天鵝存在,「所有天鵝都是白色」的結論就會被否證。這是「歸納法」的問題。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@證明為真很難(特別是使用<b>歸納法</b>),證明為偽卻相'對容易(1隻黑天鵝便足以顛覆曾經看過千萬隻白天鵝的事實),這就是天生得<b>不對稱</b>,於是<span style="color: red;">Taleb建議多多使用省力的否定法</span>。</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@<b>大衛·休謨</b>(David Hume,1711-1776):<span style="background-color: yellow;">運用歸納法的正當性永遠不可能從理性上被證明。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@<b>卡爾·波普爾</b>(Karl Popper,1902-1994):<span style="background-color: yellow;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">世界上只存在2種理論:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">(1).經過檢驗被證偽的</span><span style="background-color: yellow;">。 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">(2).尚未被證偽的,將來可能被證偽的</span>。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@<b>卡爾˙波普爾</b>:<span style="background-color: yellow;">是否為一科學的論述,重點在於假說可否被證明為誤(可否正性)</span>。(科學與宗教取得妥協) </span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWmlGHPNlDFo9IslulKkjAmQQ0TaOcLUsU7bKeGK0_Ff8tMOAjzJvb7KHqwXTiSCsI18uW9OAFzavCbGKUwrZAIjb8S2JC0vbGlvtETUd3MlEKgTm_KTgoROk-prSRXBhjOVBzoF7EYZF-/s1600/Karl+Popper1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWmlGHPNlDFo9IslulKkjAmQQ0TaOcLUsU7bKeGK0_Ff8tMOAjzJvb7KHqwXTiSCsI18uW9OAFzavCbGKUwrZAIjb8S2JC0vbGlvtETUd3MlEKgTm_KTgoROk-prSRXBhjOVBzoF7EYZF-/s320/Karl+Popper1.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@從方法學的角度看,波普只承認<b>演繹法</b>的效力,而在自然與社會科學的研究上,還需要經驗方法,這就是<b>試誤法</b>的全部了<span style="font-size: 12pt;">。</span> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.322)<span style="color: red;">「沒有證明」並不等於「證明沒有」</span>。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@有限度地使用歸納法。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@如果專家告訴你,這杯水是健康安全的,你還不能夠完全相信,因為可能這杯水裡面含有人們尚未知道或無法檢測出來的物質,但如果專家告訴你,這杯水是有毒的,別喝,那麼你最好相信,別去喝,這就是"否定法"的運用</span>。<br />
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(P.169)實證主義有更為嚴重的問題,<span style="background-color: yellow;">我可以利用資料反證1個命題,卻永遠無法證明某個命題。我可以用歷史駁斥某項推測,卻永遠無法證實它</span>。<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">《隨機騙局》</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span>
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<br />
.<br />
<b>預測可行嗎﹖</b><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@<span style="color: red;">反決定論,通俗的說,就是事物有其不可預測性。</span>歷史數據並不能告訴我們下一個天鵝的顏色。 </span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P156)歷史告訴我們,以前不曾發生的事,後來確實發生了。《隨機騙局》</span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.168)我們可能無法從歷史資訊去充分了解市場。→沒辦法證明是存在,不代一定是不存在。《隨機騙局》</span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.170)如果令你驚訝的「過去」不像「過去的過去」,為什麼我們的未來會像我們的「過去」呢?
《隨機騙局》</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.20)<span style="background-color: yellow;">人類的大部分歷史來自「黑天鵝」事件。</span> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.21)現代世界的技術知識可能不斷增加,但說來矛盾,事情的發展卻遠比從前難以預測。(P.412)人們總是相信要得到更多的資料去「解決問題」。我們不曾擁有像現在那麼多的資料,卻遠比從前難以預測事情的發展。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.190) 預測不是中性的東西,它肯定會造成(醫療)傷害。預測會給冒險犯難的人帶來絕對的傷害。 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.424)<span style="color: red;">要了解未來,你只需要這麼做:對過去展現某種尊重</span>、對歷史紀錄表現某種好奇、渴望吸收前人的智慧,以及了解「試探啟發法」的概念,因為這些經常沒有寫下來的經驗法則,決定了能否生存。換句話說,你會被迫重視一直存在身邊的東西,也就是那些存活下來的東西。 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.419)我堅持<span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>否定法</b>的預言方法是唯一站得住腳的</span>。<br />(P.420)最脆弱的東西是<b>預測</b>,也就是建立在可預測性上的東西 ―換句話說,低估「黑天鵝」的人,最後會從人群中退出。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.190)以「脆弱一強固一反脆弱」<span style="background-color: yellow;">3元組取代預測方法</span>。(P.148)脆弱的東西最後一定會毀壞;幸運的是,我們能夠判斷什麼東西脆弱。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@「黑天鵝」發生時間難以預測?影響規模難以衡量? </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.17)風險則無法衡量;脆弱性是可以衡量的。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.229)為最糟的情況做準備;最好的事情會照顧自己。這聽起來好像陳腔襤調,其實不然。…一般人總是為最好的事情做準備,卻希望最糟的事情能照顧好自己。...人們規避小損失,卻不是那麼注重非常大的「黑天鵝」風險(他們低估了這種風險),因為他們總是為可能的小損失做好保險措施,卻不理會不常發生的大損失。這樣的做法恰好反其道而行。(@捨掉虧錢的部位,賺錢的部位會照顧自己)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><u><b>反目的論</b></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@<span style="color: red;">自己就是那個因</span>,舉凡:勇氣不足、太在 意他人眼光等等,都是造就這樣自己的你,說實話這真的讓人不舒服。從《<b>牧羊少年奇幻之旅</b>》到《<b>秘密</b>》一系列講的就是:<span style="color: red;">心想事成</span>,個.當你想要什麼宇宙的力量都會幫助你。這些書都循著一個脈絡,無論你過去如何,重點是你的未來要如何,簡單的說只要你一直想望著、心向著目標,你就會達成。Taleb認為<span style="color: red;">目的、規劃讓你看不見不對稱性</span><span style="color: red;">,</span>而應該是<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">「</span>摸著石頭過河(<b>試誤法</b>,小心翼翼+小錯不斷、大錯不犯)<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">」</span>。</span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.272) 如果你相信自由意志,你就不可能真正相信社會科學和經濟預測。《黑天鵝效應》</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.236)「<b>理性的漫遊者</b>」和<b>觀光客</b>不一樣,<span style="color: red;">每一步都見機而作</span>下決定,以修改他的行程(或者目的地),好讓他能根據所獲得的新資訊,研判怎麼做最好。…漫遊者不是計畫的奴隸。…漫遊者不斷地―理性地 ―邊吸收資訊,邊修改目標。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.314)我反對目的論,不是反對一般的研究。…以純研究為例,研究獎助和資金是給人,不是給計畫,而且少量才分配給許多研究工作者。…<span style="color: red;">你賭的是騎師,而不是馬匹</span>。…<span style="color: red;">支持創業家,而不是支持創業點子</span>。為引麼?因為<span style="background-color: yellow;">創新會漂移,一個人需要漫遊者那樣的能力,去捕捉在眼前出現的機會</span>。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.318)以目的論方式而發現的<b>藥物</b>太少 ―主要是愛滋病防護藥(AZT)、愛滋病治療用藥。設計師藥物有個主要特質 ―它們是設訓出來的(因此屬於目的論的範疇)。但是我們不可能在設計一種藥物的同時,考慮潛在的<b>副作用</b>。因此這是設計師藥物未來會遇到的問題。市場上的藥物愈多,彼此的<b>交互作用</b>愈多 ―所以每推出一種新藥,可能的交互作用數目最後會激增。如果市場上有20種不相關的藥物,那麼第21種藥物需要考慮20種交互作用。聽起來不多。但如果市面上有1000種藥物,我們就需要預測略少於1000種交互作用。實際上今天的市場上有數萬種藥物。此外,有研究指出,我們可能低估了市場上已有藥物之間的交互作用達4倍之多,所以可開發上市的藥物應該會減少,而不是增加。 <br />(P.318)<b>醫藥</b>業顯然有<b>漂移</b>(@<span style="color: red;">歪打正著</span>)現象</span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">的</span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">存在,因為可能為了某種目的發明一種藥物,卻在其他地方找到新用途。</span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]-->(@天花,某癌症標靶藥,威而鋼...)<br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></b>(P.320)<b>企業</b></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">顯然</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">也</span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">有<b>漂移</b>現象</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">。</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">企業</span>喜歡<b>策略規劃</b></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">,</span>它們需要花錢去弄懂白己正往哪裡走。可是沒有證據顯示策略規劃行得通 ―甚至似乎有證據否定它。管理學者<b>威廉</b><b><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]--></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">˙</span>史塔巴克</b>(William Starbuck)發表了幾篇論文,戳破規劃有效的說法 ―因為<span style="color: red;">規劃使得企業看不到選擇權</span>,而且陷在不知見機而作的行動之中。...<b>可口可樂</b>(Coca cola)開始是種藥品。時尚珠寶公司<b>蒂芬妮</b>(Tiffany)起初是家文具店。生產第一套飛彈導引系統的<b>雷神</b>(Raytheon),本來是電冰箱製造商。頂尖行動電話製造商的<b>諾基亞</b>(Nokia)最早是造紙廠(有段時期還曾經生產橡膠鞋)。現在以生產像可麗耐(Corian)那種鐵氟龍不沾鍋平底鍋,以及高強度材料凱芙拉(Kevlar)著稱的<b>杜邦</b>(DuPont),是以炸藥業務起家。化妝品公司<b>雅芳</b>(Avon)本來是沿門挨戶推銷。... </span><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></b><br />
<br />Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-91308266357175114262016-01-08T01:42:00.002-08:002016-01-10T23:54:00.101-08:00《反脆弱》與黑天鵝共舞1:否定法<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><u><b>《反脆弱》與黑天鵝共舞1:否定法</b></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">@<b>老子</b><span style="color: red;">大道至簡</span>,…<span style="color: red;">少則得,多則惑</span>。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.405)即使我們不能表連某樣東西到底是什麼,卻有辦法說某樣束西不是什麼 --也就是用間接而非直接的方式去表達。…重點放在無法以言詞直接說明的事情上,這種方法首先避免直接描述,把重點放在負描述上,也就是「否定法」。</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.406)教宗問<b>米開朗基羅</b>,他是如何雕出公認是傑作中的傑作大衛像。米開朗基羅答道:「很簡單,我只是除去不是大衛的部分。」</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.410)<b>賈伯斯</b>說:「<span style="background-color: yellow;">談到<b>專注</b>做好一件事,</span>人們想到它的意思是對你必須專注的事情說是。但這根本不是它的意思。它的意思是說,<span style="background-color: yellow;">對眼前的其他100個好構想說不。你必須精挑細選。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">其實,<span style="color: red;">我對於我們沒做的事,和我做過的事一樣感到驕倣。</span><b>創新</b>就是對1000樣事情說不。</span>」</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"> (P.413)我們不需要用很多印滿資料的紙張,去駁斥經濟學中利用統計數字的無數論文</span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]--></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">;</span>單單指出「黑天鵝」和尾端事件充斥在社會經濟世界 ―而且這些事件無法預測 ―便足以否定它們的統計數字。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.418)根據脆弱性和反脆弱性的概念,要把事情做得嚴固,方法很簡單,就是<span style="color: red;">將不屬於將來日子的東西從未來消除</span>。也就是利用<b>否定法</b>。<span style="color: red;">脆弱的東西最後一定會毀壞;幸運的是,我們能夠判斷什麼東西脆弱</span>。 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">@利用否定法觀察未來。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.419)否定法的預言方法是唯一站得住腳的。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.446)根據容易受到傷害的特性而發出警告 ―也就是<b>減法式預言</b>。 </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPs4kFwpLZoTiLpr9EonKwzwU-7lEO9rEPXa_gaqn5GNksValj4iylrssbvqrvVbmy2mPcJhm4odSWYIE1RUjcSuiWr8K16BP-mKgiSm0-4kGlgtYaYepKDoVFMFfhRzFKrDZr_3S37I3c/s1600/%25E9%25BB%2591%25E5%25A4%25A9%25E9%25B5%259D3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPs4kFwpLZoTiLpr9EonKwzwU-7lEO9rEPXa_gaqn5GNksValj4iylrssbvqrvVbmy2mPcJhm4odSWYIE1RUjcSuiWr8K16BP-mKgiSm0-4kGlgtYaYepKDoVFMFfhRzFKrDZr_3S37I3c/s320/%25E9%25BB%2591%25E5%25A4%25A9%25E9%25B5%259D3.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b>減法</b> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.403)就人生而言,<span style="background-color: yellow;">如果世界的變化越大,而你有比較多的選擇權與選擇性彈性,那麼長久下來,你的表現會比別人好</span>。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.407)我們沒辦法確切判斷到底是成功的人擁有<b>長才</b>,還是擁有長才的人會成功 ―但是我們相當能夠預測負面的事,也就是完全不具備任何長才的人最後會失敗。 </span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.408)我們知道不對的事情,遠多於正確的事情。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.408)我們今天知道的事情,可能證明是錯的,但我們知道是錯的事清,不會變成對的,至少不是那麼容易就變成對的。...<span style="color: red;">負向知識</span>(什麼事情是不對的、什麼事情行不通)<span style="color: red;">比正向知識</span>(什麼是對的、什麼行得通)<span style="color: red;">面對錯誤更為強固。</span>所以透過減法,知識會成長得 遠比 透過加法要快。</span><br />
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.409)失敗(和反證)給我們的資訊多於成功和證實。這就是我宣稱負向知識「比較強固」的原因。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">(P.407)實務上,專業人士用的是<b>負向法</b></span>。…</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">下棋高手手試著靠不輸棋而贏棋;</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">一個人是靠不破產而致富(特別當別人正在破產時);</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">宗教主要是禁止你做某些事情;</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">人生中要學的是避開什麼事。</span>由於少數一些措施,你便能降低個人發生意外的大部分風險。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.446)根據容易受到傷害的特性而發出警告 ―也就是<b>減法式預言</b>。</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.412)人們總是相信要得到更多的資料去「解決問題」。<span style="color: red;">我們不曾擁有像現在那麼多的資料,卻遠比從前難以預測事情的發展</span><span style="color: red;">。更多的資料…就像過馬路時注意身邊人的眼睛顏色 ―會使你沒注意到迎面而來的大卡車。</span>…<b>克里斯多福˙查布里斯</b>(Christopher Chabris)和<b>丹尼爾˙西蒙斯</b>(Daniel Simons)在他們寫的《<b>為什麼你沒看見大猩猩</b>》(Invisible Gorilla)一書說,看籃球比賽影片的人,如果為了數傳球次數等細節而分心,便有可能完全沒看到大猩猩走進球場中央。</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.412)<span style="color: red;">只要把鞋子裡的小石子去掉就行了。…我們需要操心的核心事情是什麼,因為其他的事情都會照顧好自己。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"> (P.410)減法知識是一種<b>槓鈴</b>形式,它具有凸性。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b>少就是多</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b> </b>(P.411)有些簡單經驗法則並不完美,卻是故意設計得不完美;<span style="color: red;">在知性上保持某種謙卑,</span>拾棄錯綜複雜的目標,可以產生強而有力的影響。 </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.411)<b>少就是多試探啟發法</b>:某些領域中,(不論好壞)稀有事件占有不成比例的分量,而且我們傾向於視而不見。<span style="color: red;">如果把注意焦點放在利用這種稀有事件,或者探取保護措施以防受到它的傷害,可以改變很大的高風險暴露程度。</span><span style="background-color: yellow;">只要操心「黑天鎢」的暴露程度,日子就會過得相當容易。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.411)或許一大部分問題可能不容易找到原因,但是它們通常都有簡單的解決方法(不是所有的問題都有,但是夠多的問題有),而且這樣的解決方法俯拾即是。</span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">例如80/20的觀念,例如義大利20%的人擁有80%的土地。在這20%中的20%(也就是4%)的人擁有80%土地中的80%左右(也就是64%)。最後是不到1%的人擁有全部土地的50%左右。這描述了贏家通吃的極端世界效應,這些效應非常普遍。(P.412)我們正邁向99/1更極端的世界:99%的網際網路流量湧向不到1%的網站<span style="font-size: 10pt;">;</span>99%<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">的書籍銷售量是不到</span>1%<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">的作者賣</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">出去的<span lang="EN-US">…</span>。<span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: black;">當代幾乎每一樣東西,都有<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">贏家通吃</b>的效應,</span></span><span style="color: black;">而這包括傷害和利益的來源。</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: black;">因</span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">此,修正系統的</span>1%<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">可以降低脆弱性約</span>99%</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: black;">,</span></span><span style="color: black;">而且要做的事只有幾步,非常少的幾步,成本往往很低,情況卻會變得更好和更安全</span></span>。</span></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.414)<span style="background-color: yellow;">如果你做某件事情的理由超過1個,那就不要去做。</span>...如果有人用1個以上的論點,抨擊某本書或觀念,你便知道那不是事實。沒人會說「他是殺人犯,而且餐桌禮儀很差,又有口臭,開車非常莽撞。」<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">
</span> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.414)「<b>奧卡姆剃刀</b>」<span style="font-size: 10pt;">:</span>如果關於同一個問題有許多種理論,每一種都能作出同樣準確的預言,那麼應該挑選其中使用假定最少的。 </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.407)認清<b>騙子</b>很簡單,就是他們會給你正向的建議,而且只給正向的建議。 </span></div>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span><br />Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-91799707596705291782015-12-06T15:37:00.000-08:002015-12-06T23:37:51.057-08:00成功的科學家人數取決於「尾端」、極端,而不是平均數。...<b>成功的科學家人數取決於「尾端」、極端,而不是平均數。正如選擇權不在乎不利的結果,作家也不在乎討厭他們的人。</b>--(《反脆弱》P.248)<br />
<br />
Taleb的書不太好懂,但是有趣、實用、啟發、含金量高。這句話,我分3部分解釋︰<br />
<b>1.成功的科學家人數取決於「尾端」、極端,而不是平均數。</b><br />
男人在科學界和知識界的人數比較多,這並不完全是性別歧視。2007年,前哈佛校長<b>桑莫斯</b>(Lary Summers)因言賈禍,指女性數理能力差,引發哈佛教職員群起攻之,黯然辭職。之後,哈佛大學任命了建校371年以來的首位女性校長。<br />
Taleb對桑莫斯的評論是「嘴笨」,Taleb說︰成功的科學家人數取決於「尾端」、極端,而不是平均數。<br />
意思是女性和男性(平均)智慧相當,但男性的變異和離散(波動)比較大。也就是說,聰明的男人比較多,不聰明的男人也比較多。因此男人在科學界和知識界的人數比較多,同時男人在監獄的人數也比較多。<br />
同樣的現象令Taleb聯想到作家,選擇權。<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK1NWz_4gCeOTGcPNHeBxufIrR1MZEX1uQQvKijoI1U93IUbvJpdybmgQRJWpqd6rsd99atk8PcehUkWbsIqY-EokkYyuAgAktZ-15KVdrPewIMmCAZRZYeGmCUQJxDhrFMhsjzVZQA7rk/s1600/178200805.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK1NWz_4gCeOTGcPNHeBxufIrR1MZEX1uQQvKijoI1U93IUbvJpdybmgQRJWpqd6rsd99atk8PcehUkWbsIqY-EokkYyuAgAktZ-15KVdrPewIMmCAZRZYeGmCUQJxDhrFMhsjzVZQA7rk/s400/178200805.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a name='more'></a><b>2.作家不在乎討厭他們的人。</b><br />
討厭某位作家的人,頂多不買他的書,不至於有其他負面影響(總不至於要把書賣回給作者吧),所以是下檔損失有限。但喜歡這位作家的粉絲,除了買他的書,特別當粉絲中有大影響力者,對作者幫助更大,所以是上檔利益無限。<br />
下檔損失有限,上檔利益無限也是選擇權的特性之一。<br />
<br />
<b>3.選擇權不在乎不利的結果。</b><br />
(P.247)選擇權喜歡離散的結果,不太在乎平均數。因此(P.246)選擇權有個特性:它不在乎平均結果,只在意有利的結果,因為下檔損失有限。<br />
<br />
書中Taleb還聯想到奢侈品產業(珠寶、手錶、藝品、...不動產)等,就是希望讀者<span style="color: red;">能以選擇權的角度多多觀察生活周遭,找到更多商機。</span>我以推廣Taleb的觀念為樂。有人問,我就貼出來給大家參考並歡迎指正。<br />
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<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/12/blog-post_4.html"> 什麼是「深奧系統」</a>Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-34283926535320431852015-12-04T22:45:00.000-08:002015-12-06T22:45:22.995-08:00什麼是「深奧系統」<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTB_QYd-aPYRDv3lCemjCN6wdwENXT1_WlAhRanhxlbwkMgMA5gfDSrVTDJVGyQ12MJfmTkTYZY3GiEwIwvZColtDNosy5Gwv27vjZMb4a5irP_WsCqmBd0HAspzmpm4JesiCA9L5S4LRW/s1600/photo.php.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTB_QYd-aPYRDv3lCemjCN6wdwENXT1_WlAhRanhxlbwkMgMA5gfDSrVTDJVGyQ12MJfmTkTYZY3GiEwIwvZColtDNosy5Gwv27vjZMb4a5irP_WsCqmBd0HAspzmpm4JesiCA9L5S4LRW/s320/photo.php.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
這張圖剛好適合介紹什麼是「<b>深奧系統</b>」<br /> 大自然生生不息,<span style="color: red;">「反脆弱」是Taleb從生物身上觀察到的一種特質。但是後來發現在人造系統(如交通、經濟、評論...)也找得到反脆弱性</span>,Taleb只好重新創造新的分類方式,<span style="color: red;">系統具「反脆弱性」的稱為「深奧系統」,不具「反脆弱性」的稱為「非深奧系統」</span>。<br /> 深奧系統的特色之一就是「<b>相互依存</b>」程度很高。例如在各個國家和區域之間,經濟發展都不是也不可能是彼此孤立的,且必然是相互依存、相互制約的。Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-66717076243337691682015-11-30T18:01:00.002-08:002015-12-02T07:24:05.727-08:002013義美的老實說,暴露了台灣上下交相賊<div class="_2cuy _3dgx">
頂新無罪判決沸沸揚揚鬧了幾天,台灣果然充滿活力,媒體、酸民迫不及待地千夫所指,一下子說<b><span class="_5yi-">法官</span></b>恐龍、一下子說<b><span class="_5yi-">檢察官</span></b>恐龍,一下子又覺得<b><span class="_5yi-">食安法</span></b>有問題。一下子說要<b>上訴</b>...好不熱鬧。</div>
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朋友(Steven Teng)介紹的一篇文章頗值得大家一看,1則它最新,2則它同時也回答它篇文章的質疑:</div>
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<a href="http://www.appledaily.com.tw/realtimenews/article/new/20151130/743559/?utm_source=Via&utm_medium=Android_Share&utm_campaign=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%2F%E8%AB%96%E5%A3%87%2F%E9%BB%91%E5%BF%83%E5%BE%8B%E5%B8%AB%E7%9A%84%E5%91%8A%E7%99%BD%EF%BC%9A%E9%A0%82%E6%96%B0%E6%A1%88%E6%AA%A2%E8%BE%AF%E5%AF%A9%E4%B8%89%E6%96%B9%E5%BF%83%E8%A3%A1%E4%B8%8D%E6%95%A2%E8%AC%9B%E5%87%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%9F%E5%BF%83%E8%A9%B1">2015/11/30 <span style="color: blue;"><b><span class="_5yi-">黑心律師的告白:頂新案檢辯審三方心裡不敢講出口的真心話</span></b></span> @蘋果日報</a></div>
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(標題聳動脫節,內容還算OK,標準「蘋果」本色)</div>
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看完會發現真正最可怕的恐龍竟是「<b><span class="_5yi-">不理性的輿論</span></b>」。不理性徒增對立,耗費資源,社會猶如無頭蒼蠅、空轉失速。而推波助瀾「不理性輿論」的通常是善於貼標籤的「<b><span class="_5yi-">媒體</span></b>」與汲汲營營的「<b><span class="_5yi-">政治人物</span></b>」。很多分析評論都是事後諸葛,讓你誤認為執法人員當時都是「豬頭」。他們這樣說、那樣播,心中其實只有權謀算計,而無絲毫公眾利益。</div>
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整件事情也許還有轉折,但做為一個有獨立思辯能力的社會公民,就要學習冷靜、尊重專業、<span style="color: red;"><span class="_5yi-">向散播「不理性的輿論」的媒體及政治人物說「不」</span>!</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEignGdgWj5kGQ1_vNL6CNwsuG5PBf73W4-9GN6qPHRuJQ13xFExtC43pyRUrUj_RgBwwXKoWjvTGbpi1Qyryre_v7B3rNgvwR0Vy860R4NvBhzrFJi-JVHGAwcrPax9x8dM4CHYPIH52uTN/s1600/%25E5%2585%25B1%25E7%2594%259F.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEignGdgWj5kGQ1_vNL6CNwsuG5PBf73W4-9GN6qPHRuJQ13xFExtC43pyRUrUj_RgBwwXKoWjvTGbpi1Qyryre_v7B3rNgvwR0Vy860R4NvBhzrFJi-JVHGAwcrPax9x8dM4CHYPIH52uTN/s400/%25E5%2585%25B1%25E7%2594%259F.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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再請大家比較這篇老文章</div>
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2013/12 <span style="color: blue;"><b><span class="_5yi-">義美為什麼退出政府推動的GMP?</span></b></span> @遠見</div>
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<a href="http://www.gvm.com.tw/Boardcontent_24529.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.gvm.com.tw/Boardcontent_⋯⋯</a></div>
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<a href="http://teapot43.pixnet.net/blog/post/41364160" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://teapot43.pixnet.net/blog/pos⋯⋯</a></div>
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遠見的官網自己反而刪了哪些文字?<br />
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"台灣食安未接軌國際 淪為閉門造車</div>
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台灣的食安制度也自成一格,無法和國際接軌。舉例,台灣添加物的分類方法就和全世界不一樣,台灣分成17類,但美國分為30幾類,如何接軌?如果政府認為,</div>
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跟美國談判跨太平洋戰略協定伙伴(TPP)比較重要,那就跟美國接軌;重視食品安全,就跟歐盟接軌;考量市場規模,就和中國大陸接軌;考量產業端,就和日本接軌,</div>
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不能搞到最後什麼都不是,2300萬人自己關起來訂一套標準。"</div>
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全盤的美規、歐規...利益相關團體就少了操作空間,<span class="_5yi-">義美的老實說,暴露了台灣上下交相賊</span>。<br />
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<![endif]--><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font: inherit; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21px; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span><span style="color: blue;"><b><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2014/11/blog-post.html">食安沒有方向,成本最高啊 ! </a></b></span>
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Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-77799759386216635122015-10-11T21:37:00.002-07:002015-10-12T01:03:56.244-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要0-2【導讀】<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>《隨機騙局》摘要0-2【導讀】</b> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">身處<span style="color: red;">4低</span>(低增長、低通膨、低貿易增長、低利率)的「<b>黑天鵝時代</b>」,Taleb 的建言值得一聽。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">本書分3部。相較之下,我更喜歡第1版的譯名《<b>隨機的致富陷阱:解開生活中的機率之謎</b>》,《<b>隨機的致富陷阱</b>》是第1部,《<b>解開生活中的機率之謎</b>》是第2部</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">。</span></span>簡中版譯為《<b>隨機致富的傻瓜</b>》 也不錯。 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">在逐章導讀之前,我先對本書幾個容易混淆之處予以澄清:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">首先,</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.28)本書的觀念是「<span style="background-color: yellow;">事情比我們所想的要隨機</span>」,而不是「一切事情都隨機」。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.29)<span style="background-color: yellow;">「機運」當然眷顧做好準備的人!</span>…一個人必須出去買彩券,才可能中大獎。 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">其次,</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">看過書的人,大都以為Taleb在談「<span style="color: red;">機率不對稱</span>」。是的,但他更強調「<span style="background-color: yellow;">結果不對稱</span>」。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">不該玩俄羅斯輪盤,是因為「結果不對稱」。<br />看多卻放空,也是因為「結果不對稱」。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.52)<span style="background-color: yellow;">如果失敗的代價過於沉重、難以承受,那麼這件事成功的機率有多高根本無關緊要。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">第3,</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">書中介紹了<span style="color: red;">5</span>位「<b>幸運的傻瓜</b>」:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">機率懷疑論者「<b>尼洛</b>」、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">高收益高交易員「<b>約翰</b>」、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">愛攤平的「<b>卡洛斯</b>」、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">機率高手與經濟學家「<b>凱因斯</b>」、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">實證主義者「<b>尼德霍夫</b>」</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">。</span></span><br />
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<![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">(P.51)</span><span style="background-color: yellow;">每隔一段時間「市場」就會讓如約翰之輩,知道誰才是真正的老大。 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;">每位傻瓜背後其實代表曾經紅極一時的理論學說,最後僅僅懂機率的「尼洛」與「凱因斯」存活。因此</span><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red;">,</span>我猜「尼洛」是Taleb 的化身。</span>而「<b>凱因斯</b>」在其成功的投資生涯中,3次幾乎傾家蕩產,所以我並不覺得他有何值得張揚之處。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">第4, </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">熱愛哲學的Taleb 當然也提到他的精神導師:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>蒙田</b>(Montaigne,1533-1592)的<b>教育</b>觀</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>泰勒斯</b>(Thales,約西元前640-西元前546)、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>梭倫</b>(Solon,約西元前630—西元前560年)、 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>休謨</b>(David Hume,1711-1776)、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>巴柏</b>(Sir Karl Raimund Popper,1902-1994)…都對Taleb 的<b>操作</b>產生影響。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">第5,</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">書中一再強調<span style="color: red;">人是機率盲</span>,因此作者並非要你成為「機率」高手,你不需要會「算」,只需<span style="background-color: yellow;">培養直觀</span>,警覺</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">《<b>隨機的致富陷阱</b>》</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">。</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">經驗中</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,</span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">「<span style="background-color: yellow;">逆向思考</span>」往往有助於你靈光乍現。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.26)<span style="color: red;">本書中,機率主要是應用懷疑論的分支,不屬工程學門</span>。</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">…</span></span></span>機率不只用於計算骰子每一面出現的機率,或者更為複雜的變化用途;它是指接受我們的知識缺乏確定性,並且發展各種方法以處理我們的無知。</span> </span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxQouQkzSUBlSiFLMC3vvlSZPvxOBi__pb2pT5lNVVvZ5kS8O2RvxX2snQfqFSQ_MBqIwA4GLafubREJ9NWxfSq2in7YIm4GmhuqpeJJOzeWhHXJ0bbVSgMfsc6pLSe4e8WKzzoDUEjurI/s1600/%25E5%2593%25B2%25E5%25AD%25B8+%25E4%25BC%2591%25E8%25AC%25A8David+Hume3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxQouQkzSUBlSiFLMC3vvlSZPvxOBi__pb2pT5lNVVvZ5kS8O2RvxX2snQfqFSQ_MBqIwA4GLafubREJ9NWxfSq2in7YIm4GmhuqpeJJOzeWhHXJ0bbVSgMfsc6pLSe4e8WKzzoDUEjurI/s400/%25E5%2593%25B2%25E5%25AD%25B8+%25E4%25BC%2591%25E8%25AC%25A8David+Hume3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><u><b>第1部 梭倫的警世之言 偏態、不對稱、歸納</b></u></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">第1部(1-7章)佔了近2/3篇幅,是本書精華:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">說明<span style="background-color: yellow;">人們不了解稀有事件,而且似乎不接受它的發生機率、不接受發生之後的慘痛結果。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>1 如果你那麼有錢,為什麼不是那麼聰明?</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">本章介紹2位「<b>幸運的傻瓜</b>」:機率懷疑論者「<b>尼洛</b>」及 高收益高交易員「<b>約翰</b>」。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>2 怪異的會計衡量方法</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">大多數的人都參與玩「<b>俄羅斯輪盤</b>」的遊戲。人們只見到財富產生出來,卻不曾看到過程,結果忘了風險,沒想到輸家。最後提到設置「<b>風險經理</b>」處境尷尬,有所謂「<b>代理人問題</b>」。<b> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>3 用數學沉思歷史</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>4 隨機性、胡說八道和科學知識分子</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">可略<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>5 最不適者生存──進化有可能被隨機性愚弄嗎?</b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">本章介紹愛攤平的「<b>卡洛斯</b>」,並總結大部分「<b>幸運的傻瓜</b>」的特徵。最後談及「<b>存活者偏誤</b>」<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>6 偏態與不對稱 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #cccccc;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">操作者必看</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>7 歸納的問題</b><span class="text_exposed_show"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">★</span></b></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="text_exposed_show">本章談Taleb的理論架構,同時也介紹了</span>「<b>幸運的傻瓜</b>」實證主義者「<b>尼德霍夫</b>」及<span class="text_exposed_show">2位哲學家</span><span class="text_exposed_show"><b>:休謨</b>與<b>巴柏</b>。<br /> <b>實證主義</b>的問題→<b>歸納法</b>的問題 <b>休謨</b>→<b>否證論</b>者 <b>巴柏</b></span><span style="font-size: xx-small; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span></span></span><br />
<div class="text_exposed_show">
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">第7章不是本書最重要的,但卻是是Taleb 3部曲最重要的篇章之一,作者由此基礎一直推論到 <b>反脆弱</b>。</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">這裡再介紹</span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">幾年前的</span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">一篇</span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">熱門網路文章</span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">,</span><br data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text1/=010" /><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text2/=010">波普尔的门徒――读《随机致富的傻瓜》</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><a class="" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$range0/=10" dir="ltr" href="https://smec-km.jandi.com/app/#/channels/11293787" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://smec-km.jandi.com/app/#/channels/11293787</a><br data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text1/=010" /><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010">這次 我才驚覺作者完全誤解Taleb為何談 </span></span></span></span><b>尼德霍夫</b><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span>.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><u><b>第2部 打字機前的猴子</b></u></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">8、9兩章提供「<b>存活者偏誤</b>」大量範例</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">,</span></span></span></span></span></span>其他</span></span></span></span></span>部分章節談到<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">「</span><b>行為偏誤</b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">」</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">「</span><b>行為偏誤</b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">」已</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">是學裡上另外一大範疇</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">,</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">建議可略或將之視為甜點</span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">、或贈品</span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">,</span></span></span></span>收集下來成為另</span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">類主題的元素</span></span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span></span></span></span></span>如此既可保持頭腦清明</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">,</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">繼續</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">暢論</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">思辯</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">,</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">大大享受閱讀之樂</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span> <br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>8 隔壁的百萬富翁太多</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>9 買賣比煎蛋容易</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">再論「<b>存活者偏誤</b>」<span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$end/=1$text2/=010"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>10 輸家通賠──談人生中的非線性</b></span></span><br />
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">最短的一章,<span style="color: red;">極端的成功最常見的理由是機運</span><span style="color: red;">。</span>同時介紹一些有趣的非線性觀念:「<b>沙堆效應</b>」、「<b>路徑相依</b>」、「<b>網路外部性</b>」、「<b>布里丹的驢子</b>」<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">…</span>,可把本章當成甜點<span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">、</span></span></span></span><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body"><span class="UFICommentBody" data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0"><span data-reactid=".2o.1:5.0.1:$comment10207992113908618_10207993770750038/=10.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.$text0/=1$text0/=010">或</span></span></span></span>贈品。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">人們永遠無法預測<b>引爆點</b>(Tipping Point)確切位於<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.229)<span style="background-color: yellow;">知道這些非線性存在,而不是試著將它們建模。</span>…傑出的數學家貝諾˙曼德伯(Benoit Mandelbrot)告訴我們:<span style="color: red;">有一種「狂野」的隨機性存在,但我們永遠不會懂得太多</span>(肇因於它們的性質不穩定)。 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>11 隨機性和我們的心智:我們是機率盲</b> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">最長舌的一章,談一些<b>行為謬誤</b>(試探法、事後諸葛偏誤、<b>錨定</b>效應…)、人的生物構造無力了解機率、生活中常見機率偏誤,最後介紹 過濾「雜訊」的方法 …。其中,經由大腦實驗,驗證了17世紀<b>休謨</b>的說法:「<span style="color: red;">決定行為的是慾望和其它的心理狀態,而不是理性。</span>」<span style="background-color: yellow;">人少了情感,就做不出決定。</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">此部分讓我印象深刻</span></span> …當然也可把本章當成甜點、或贈品。</span></span>Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-67868636349683134232015-10-11T09:14:00.003-07:002015-12-02T07:24:21.663-08:00《隨機騙局》摘要0-1【導讀】<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>《隨機騙局》摘要0-1【導讀】</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">「投資」有沒有所謂一般性法則﹖其實是有的。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">但在使用「一般性」法則之前,可能要先知道自己想依據的<span style="color: red;">投資(或投機)法則是依「大概率」還是「小概率」運作的</span>。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">數學名詞也常會誤導一些認知,譬如,「常態分配」指的是一種分配模式,現實生活中,並不見得那麼常見。「偏態分配」也沒有你想像的那麼稀有。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">Taleb 的「隨機騙局」,一本我認為一輩子最值得念的10本書之一。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Taleb 的警語,不只適用於投資,也可以是一種生活態度,它讓你不再隨波逐流,悠遊「<b>黑天鵝時代</b>」。...</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">本書適合:亟欲<span style="color: red;">培養 獨立思辯</span>能力的人、<span style="color: red;">熱愛閒適生活</span>的人、<b>金融操作</b>者、及<b>非金融投資</b>者,都應能從本書獲益。 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>1.作者Nassim Nicholas Taleb(NNT)</b><b>黎巴嫩名門之後(Highborn)</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>自學者(Autodidact)</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">芝加哥大學經濟學博士 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>多語言掌握者(Polyglot) </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">法、英、阿拉伯、西班牙、意大利;還能看懂拉丁語、亞拉姆語、古希臘語、古希伯來語;</span></span></span> <br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>華爾街的「獨孤大俠」 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Empirica基金公司、構造獨特投資組合、 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>癌症康復者</b>、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>暢銷書作家</b>、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>學者</b>、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>閱讀狂人</b>、</span></span><br />
<b>索羅斯</b>粉絲、<b> </b><br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>哲學家</b></span>。<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>2.Taleb 有名的3部曲: </b></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">《<b>隨機騙局</b>》講的是人們總是容易被隨機性誤導。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">《<b>黑天鵝效應</b>》說明<b>黑天鵝</b>事件(指極不可能發生、實際上卻又會發生的事)帶來的種種問題。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">《<b>反脆弱</b>》則提供了身處<b>黑天鵝</b>時代,我們該具備的世界觀、哲思及解決問題的方法。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_HiOs0yAmRZ0dr42WfYJbAgjiip1_4ITcNaDKl1v0zTX9GXHz27wwYQAMFz9gDexfP_Xo1c-qRMa62rUiQ2hthjwzxWHB1JT3enHb-9icJSxC9l1PmV13gZbgAHoMRh1_hIBDwDDinxzC/s1600/%25E9%259A%25A8%25E6%25A9%259F%25E9%25A8%2599%25E5%25B1%2580.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_HiOs0yAmRZ0dr42WfYJbAgjiip1_4ITcNaDKl1v0zTX9GXHz27wwYQAMFz9gDexfP_Xo1c-qRMa62rUiQ2hthjwzxWHB1JT3enHb-9icJSxC9l1PmV13gZbgAHoMRh1_hIBDwDDinxzC/s200/%25E9%259A%25A8%25E6%25A9%259F%25E9%25A8%2599%25E5%25B1%2580.jpg" width="140" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin_eG_UnJFJPnCqmLEBonwXSZ9K3OW3qI8IL0cGVnyeQ3AxFErB8C23VD0Z6E6P_YI2tLNEYjwAHADW5uPa9INKKH5Z_yBCbodSWUKV1L8ulyfMl2RVgUz6RJeKkdoa5gizP-VyZyAY5Xt/s1600/Taleb+%25E5%258F%258D%25E8%2584%2586%25E5%25BC%25B1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin_eG_UnJFJPnCqmLEBonwXSZ9K3OW3qI8IL0cGVnyeQ3AxFErB8C23VD0Z6E6P_YI2tLNEYjwAHADW5uPa9INKKH5Z_yBCbodSWUKV1L8ulyfMl2RVgUz6RJeKkdoa5gizP-VyZyAY5Xt/s200/Taleb+%25E5%258F%258D%25E8%2584%2586%25E5%25BC%25B1.jpg" width="141" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfQKLPleBlJIAGiw_87v-boLzAiqYia-eK0g976JXVWL_G__Iw4ziSG4AD8M5hdsTHaodrA3iqBgR9sHbOYX2DtTRxWIPZhxWjMmDbMIzcPp5GNzhrp4zkMx0Mu4h2EeyOp8Rnp3iTPUyS/s1600/Taleb+%25E9%25BB%2591%25E5%25A4%25A9%25E9%25B5%259D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfQKLPleBlJIAGiw_87v-boLzAiqYia-eK0g976JXVWL_G__Iw4ziSG4AD8M5hdsTHaodrA3iqBgR9sHbOYX2DtTRxWIPZhxWjMmDbMIzcPp5GNzhrp4zkMx0Mu4h2EeyOp8Rnp3iTPUyS/s1600/Taleb+%25E9%25BB%2591%25E5%25A4%25A9%25E9%25B5%259D.jpg" /></a></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">不太好唸</span><span style="font-size: small;">的書</span><span style="font-size: small;">的作者</span><span style="font-size: small;">通常</span><span style="font-size: small;">有下列特質:如</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">熱愛<b>哲學</b>(現象萃取、推論與抽象) 、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>隨筆集冊</b>(前後引用次序、發散) 、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>博學(</b>Taleb 熟悉 教育、醫學、金融、機率<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">…</span>等主題,太多術語) 、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">引用(名詞未及統一的)<b>新論文</b>、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>囉嗦</b> …。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">那麼</span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">難唸的</span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">書,為何我還將之列為<span style="color: red;">10大必讀好書</span>,並熱情推薦</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; font-size: xx-small; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">﹖</span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">實在是<span style="color: red;">含金量高,CP 值更高</span>。</span></span><br />
<span style="color: red;">Taleb 的書對翻譯者都是大挑戰</span>,<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">我給《<b>隨機騙局</b>》繁中譯本的分數普普,但它比簡體版好太多</span><span style="font-size: small;">。同位譯者的《<b>反脆弱</b>》繁中譯本稍差,與簡體版已在伯仲之間</span><span style="font-size: small;">,可以看出簡體版的進步。</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>3.</b></span><span style="font-size: small;">「<b>以經解經</b>」<b>寫書摘</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">2012年,我已經為寫過《<b>隨機騙局</b>》一篇書摘:</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2012/11/blog-post.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2012/11/blog-post.html</a></span></span> <br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">今(2015)年,為35屆<b>行雲會</b>的經典圖書《<b>反脆弱</b>》,我重買《<b>隨機騙局</b>》第2版,加上簡體版,至少已經翻了3遍以上,領悟自然又多了一些。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">這次我重寫<b>書摘</b>,<span style="color: red;">大量引用原文</span>,</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>理由1</b>.本書以雜記呈現,思緒較發散,一般讀者難窺其奧,這由網路上一般般的心得摘要即可印證。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>理由2</b>.證明我並未扭曲原意,<span style="color: red;">讓原文自己印證自己</span>(「<b>以經解經</b>」 也是閱讀經典的技巧之一)。<b> </b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>4.洋洋灑灑十幾篇書摘</b> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]--></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">「</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">正確解讀Taleb 原意</span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">」</span>是我寫書摘的</span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">最高指導原則</span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,不惜</span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">大費周章</span></span></span></span>地<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">打破章節</span><span style="font-size: small;">、重新分類</span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">。</span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">讀者只需</span><span style="font-size: small;">刪除重覆贅文,</span><span style="font-size: small;">即可成就</span><span style="font-size: small;"><b>一</b>篇</span><span style="font-size: small;">篇<b>高壓縮比</b>的書摘</span><span style="font-size: small;">。</span><span style="font-size: small;">新6大主題分為:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">0,導讀</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">1,<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/1-1.html">獨立思考</a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">2,<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/2-1.html">機率性</a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">3,<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/3-1.html">幸運的傻瓜</a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">4,<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/4.html">存活者偏誤</a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">5,<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/5-1.html">其他</a> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">6,<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/6-1.html">哲思</a> </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">有關操作(此部分我並未貼出</span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,只是認為此部分應以雙向進行</span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,有興趣討論</span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,</span></span></span></span>我都歡迎calvin_scyen@yahoo.com.tw)</span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">【相關連結】</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/0-2.html"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></span></span>《隨機騙局》摘要0-2【導讀】</span></span></a> </span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]-->Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-35863763546434859312015-10-10T23:04:00.000-07:002015-10-24T15:09:39.541-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要5-2 <其它>索羅斯、逆向選擇<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>《隨機騙局》摘要5-2 <其它></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"> </span></b></b></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【索羅斯】</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.171-172)我是拜讀交易人兼自稱為哲學家的<b>索羅斯</b>的作品,重新發現<b>巴柏</b>。索羅斯似乎將他的生活塑造得如同巴柏觀念的推廣者。但談到經濟學和哲學,我不同意他的說法:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">首先,雖然他自認為是哲學家,我對他也敬佩不已,卻不得不同意索羅斯的長才不在哲學思辨上。他寫的第1本書《<b>金融鍊金術</b>The Alchemy of Finance : reading the mind of the market》來說,一方面,他丟下「<b>演繹律</b>」(deductive-nomological)。另一方面,看不出他有多了解這些概念。例如,他執行了他所說的「交易實驗」,然後根據交易成功,推斷背後的理論正確有效。這樣的說法荒唐可笑(我可以擲骰子以證明我的宗教信仰,並以作為我的理念正確的證據)。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.172)<b>索羅斯</b>雖然沒有寫出什麼有內涵的東西,但<span style="background-color: yellow;">他懂得如何保持批判性的開放心胸,而且處理隨機性時,絲毫不以改變意見為恥。</span>他到處說自己容易犯錯,卻擁有那麼強的力量,因為他懂得這個道理其他人卻將自己看得太高。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.172)<b>索羅斯</b>一時無法獲得其他知識分子的接納,所以他試著透過金錢,取得和他們相同的優越地位。這有點像是男人使盡全力之後,最後不得已,只好訴諸紅色法拉利跑車等身外之物誘惑女人。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDKMvlp7NeRiEXBTl0Iavw2OwRIe-vCek1OlD8cKQpSiK2mEsE2fwdxoldvaoW9h-SRZDgthNFUgjXNaRxTLh2zHn1iaIMb6V0fUhE2DIJnVcE1C5lIoBfNTcfgxpOH0UweQjPTYVNMm3_/s1600/%25E7%25B4%25A2%25E7%25BE%2585%25E6%2596%25AF7.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDKMvlp7NeRiEXBTl0Iavw2OwRIe-vCek1OlD8cKQpSiK2mEsE2fwdxoldvaoW9h-SRZDgthNFUgjXNaRxTLh2zHn1iaIMb6V0fUhE2DIJnVcE1C5lIoBfNTcfgxpOH0UweQjPTYVNMm3_/s320/%25E7%25B4%25A2%25E7%25BE%2585%25E6%2596%25AF7.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【有錢】</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.172)<span style="color: red;">迅速致富的人,態度上經常自以為是史詩中的英雄。 </span>(P.193)<span style="color: red;">要過富足的生活很花時間</span>― 談起時髦的衣服、波爾多葡萄酒、昂貴的餐廳。所有這些活動,必須花費很多時間去做,也使人無法全神貫注地投入真正該做的事。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.194)最有錢的人看起來比較不像有錢人。反過來說,行為和外表看起來有錢的人,財富流失得很快,經紀帳戶會受到不可逆轉的臣大傷害。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.194)我不覺得累積錢財有什麼特別值得一提的地方,尤其是如果一個人笨到不試著從財富產生一些有形利益的話(姑且不提經常數錢的樂趣)。…如果我必須成為<b>華倫˙
巴菲特</b>那樣的億萬富翁,養成斯巴達式(甚至更刻苦)的習慣,一直住在首次購買的房子裡,那我看不出成為億萬富翁有什麼意義。盛讚他富有卻過著儉樸的生活,
我不懂道理何在。如果樸素過日子是目標,那麼他應該去當僧侶或社會工作者。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.194)致富只是自私的行為,不是社會行為。資本主義的優點,在於社會能夠利用人們的貪婪而運作,不結靠他們的慈悲。</span></span><br />
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<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">【</span></b></b></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">逆向選擇</span></span></b></span></span></span></span></b></b></span></span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">】</span></b></b></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"></span></b></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">◎</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">逆向選擇</span></span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是指由於交易雙方信息不對稱和市場價格下降產生的劣質品驅逐優質品,進而出現市場交易產品平均質量下降的現象。例如,在產品市場上,特別是在</span><b><span lang="EN-US">2</span></b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b>手貨市場</b>上,由於賣方比買方擁有更多的關於商品質量的信息,買方由於無法識別商品質量的優劣,只願根據商品的平均質量付價,這就使優質品價格被低估而退出市場交易,結果只有劣質品成交,進而導致交易的停止。因此,<span style="color: red;">要從根本上解決</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">“</span><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">打假</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">”</span><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">問題,關鍵是解決買賣雙方的信息不對稱問題</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在現實的經濟生活中,存在著一些和常規不一致的現象。本來按常規,降低商品的價格,該商品的需求量就會增加;提高商品的價格,該商品的供給量就會增加。但是,<span style="color: #0070c0;">由於信息的不完全性和機會主義行為,</span><span style="color: red;">有時候,降低商品的價格,消費者也不會做出增加購買的選擇;提高價格,生產者也不會增加供給的現象。</span>所以,叫</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">逆向選擇</span></span></b><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">在金融市場上,<b>逆向選擇</b>是指市場上那些<span style="color: red;">最有可能造成不利(逆向)結果(即造成違約風險)的融資者,往往就是那些尋求資金最積極而且最有可能得到資金的人。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">銀行的一大業務是向企業提供風險貸款。從貸款方說,對於那些行事風格比較穩健,成功率比較高因而還款能力也較強的企業,當然是優先貸款的對象。然而從借貸方說,這樣的企業違反其一向的穩健風格,不到萬不得已,是不會花較高利息借款的;恰恰是那些平時比較喜歡冒險,而冒險就有可能失誤甚至連老本也賠光因而也就無法還款的企業,更喜歡花較高利息到銀行貸款。這就出現了信貸市場的逆向選擇,這大概也是現今商業銀行呆壞賬高居不下的一個重要原因。 </span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><b>保險</b>市場也是這樣。身體比較健康,平時不大患病的人,一般是不願意到保險公司購買健康保險的。恰恰是那些身體不大健康,平時老愛生病的人,更願意購買健康保險。由於保戶的總體健康水平很低,保險公司賠給保戶的錢,就會大大高於他們按照正常人平均得病率所收取的保費,這就出現了保險市場的逆向選擇。</span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span>相關連結<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】</span></b></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/0-1.html"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">《隨機騙局》摘要0 <導讀></span></span></span></a></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/5-1.html">《隨機騙局》摘要5-1 <其它></a></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> </span></span> </span></span></span></span></span>Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-19495020621823724782015-10-10T21:21:00.005-07:002015-10-24T15:07:36.566-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要4-2 【雙重存活者偏誤】善用存活者<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">《隨機騙局》摘要4-2</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【雙重存活者偏誤】</span></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.30)</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.194-196)</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">《<b>隔壁的百萬富翁</b>》(The Millionaire Next Door)一書的作者,寫了另一本更蠢的書,書名叫《<b>有錢人想的和你不一樣</b>》(The Millionaire Mind)。他研究超過千位百萬富翁,發現在他們的童年並沒有展現高智力,因此推斷使你富有的,並不是天賦,而是勤奮工作。</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">…這是混淆必要和因果的另一個說法。如果作者的取樣是普羅大眾,結論可能會是「運氣」發揮了某種作用。因為就算所有的百萬富翁都是<b>執著、勤奮</b>的人,並不會使<b>執著</b></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">、</span>勤奮</b>工作者成為百萬富翁。許多不成功的創業家也是<b>執著、勤奮</b>的人。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">同樣的,作者研判百萬富翁們都喜歡<b>冒險犯難</b>。<b>冒險犯難</b>顯然是大獲成功的必要條件— 卻也是失敗的必要條件。要是作者對破產公民做相同的研究,肯定會發現他們也喜愛冒險犯難。第1個偏誤在於他們的樣本選到的富人,是打字機前的幸運猴子。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">第<span lang="EN-US">2</span>個缺失更為嚴重(歸納問題)。<span style="color: red;">他們講的故事,集中在歷史上一段不尋常的期間</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">。</span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIVxDTjuDVTuvdXWUV6cHk9huZ4v3ZODnU-hzBaOoEqMhbgasztj9moZxyrzP-rpE1J-NTpxvtGllHL3H33HKrbUl_-p0ENVZxYBAWYLwsIugRtflCH2A5DxUTAkKX7R8-T8h5RG52SJrQ/s1600/%25E6%259C%2589%25E9%258C%25A2%25E4%25BA%25BA%25E6%2583%25B3%25E7%259A%2584%25E5%2592%258C%25E4%25BD%25A0%25E4%25B8%258D%25E4%25B8%2580%25E6%25A8%25A3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIVxDTjuDVTuvdXWUV6cHk9huZ4v3ZODnU-hzBaOoEqMhbgasztj9moZxyrzP-rpE1J-NTpxvtGllHL3H33HKrbUl_-p0ENVZxYBAWYLwsIugRtflCH2A5DxUTAkKX7R8-T8h5RG52SJrQ/s400/%25E6%259C%2589%25E9%258C%25A2%25E4%25BA%25BA%25E6%2583%25B3%25E7%259A%2584%25E5%2592%258C%25E4%25BD%25A0%25E4%25B8%258D%25E4%25B8%2580%25E6%25A8%25A3.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></span></div>
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<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span></b></span></span></b></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">太重視「看得見的」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">反而做出錯誤決策</span></b></span></span></span></span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】 </span></b></span></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">戰況吃緊,如果你是英國皇家空軍部長,該在哪個部位加強裝甲?</span></b></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 圖左是沒有中彈的飛機,圖右陰影處代表飛機的彈著點</span></span></span></span><br />
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</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">1941</span>年,第<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">2</span>世界大戰期間。有一天,美國哥倫比亞大學著名的統計學家<b>沃爾德教</b>授<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">(Abraham
Wald</span>,<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">1902-1950)</span>,來了一個意外的訪客,那是英國皇家空軍的作戰指揮官。他說:「沃爾德教授,</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">…</span>請協助我們<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">決定</span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">,</span></span>該在哪個部位加強裝甲?</span></span>」<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">因為</span>依照當時的航空技術,機體裝甲只能局部加強,否則機體過重,會導致起飛困難及操控遲鈍。</span></span></span></span></div>
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沃爾德接下這個緊急研究案,分析德國地面砲火擊中聯軍轟炸機的資料,<span style="color: red;">發現機翼是最容易被擊中的部位,而飛行員的座艙與機尾,則是最少被擊中的部位。</span><br />
沃爾德詳盡的資料分析,令英國皇家空軍十分滿意。負責該專案的作戰<b>指揮官</b>說:「沃爾德教授的研究清楚的顯示,聯軍轟炸機的機翼,彈孔密密麻麻,最容易中彈。因此,我們應該加強機翼的裝甲。」<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
</span>但<b>沃爾德</b>卻堅定而客氣的說:「將軍,</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">…</span></span>我建議加強飛行員座艙與機尾發動機部位的裝甲,因為那兒最少發現彈孔。」在全場錯愕懷疑的眼光中,<b>沃爾德</b>解釋說:「我所分析的樣本中,只包含順利返回基地的轟炸機。從統計的觀點來看,我認為被多次<span style="color: red;">擊中機翼的轟炸機,似乎還是能夠安全返航。而飛機很少發現彈著點的部位,並不是真的不會中彈,而是一旦中彈,根本就無法返航。</span>」<br /><b>指揮官</b>反駁說:「</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">…</span></span>以我個人而言,過去也曾多次機翼中彈嚴重受創</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">,是因為</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">我的飛行技術老到,運氣也不錯,否則早就機毀人亡了。所以,我依然強烈主張應該加強機翼的裝甲。」<br />
2種意見堅持不下,皇家空軍部部長陷入苦思。</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【善用存活者】 </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.113)華爾街偏愛獲利最高和盡可能年輕的人。我則發現選擇年紀大的交易員,享有顯著的優勢。<span style="color: red;">選擇交易員的標準,是看他們投入這一行的累積年數,不是看絕對的成功狀況</span>(@條件是他們沒有陣亡,活了下來)。</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【相關連結】</b></span><span style="font-size: xx-small; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/0-1.html"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">《隨機騙局》摘要0 <導讀></span></span></span></a></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/4.html"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">《隨機騙局》摘要4-1 【存活者偏誤】 </span></span></a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: blue;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> </span></span></span></span> </span></span></span>Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-20500561685165442802015-10-10T20:00:00.004-07:002015-10-24T15:08:35.256-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要5-1 <其它> 非線性<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>《隨機騙局》摘要5 <其它></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.61)<span style="background-color: yellow;">當交易員最難過的,事件到錢像天上掉下來的禮物,落到毫無準備的人身上。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.67)<span style="color: red;">絕對不要問交易員他有沒有賺錢,從他的舉手投足你就看得出來了。</span>從表情上可能看不太出來,因為人們會刻意控制臉部的表晴。但是他們走路的方式、拿電話的方式、行為上的猶疑不決,卻掩飾不了真正的心情。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8-byiEl9q8LIV5tjlOHZoeM5kQJhGQHTrn1f-2AUgm55Bx2Tn0Vz4UVNsKpihGtAdeQ_XAb3Z-mEUmaZ7EhsYNese2vASVRsyZAYOkUwBbjVV4WwaRVLVkbiJNJVHgF-RIzUjy6mJTDJx/s1600/%25E5%259E%2582%25E9%25A0%25AD%25E5%2596%25AA%25E6%25B0%25A3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8-byiEl9q8LIV5tjlOHZoeM5kQJhGQHTrn1f-2AUgm55Bx2Tn0Vz4UVNsKpihGtAdeQ_XAb3Z-mEUmaZ7EhsYNese2vASVRsyZAYOkUwBbjVV4WwaRVLVkbiJNJVHgF-RIzUjy6mJTDJx/s320/%25E5%259E%2582%25E9%25A0%25AD%25E5%2596%25AA%25E6%25B0%25A3.jpg" /></a></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.83)英雄之所以是英雄,是因為他們展現了英勇的行為,不是因為他們贏了或輸了。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.90)<b>副現象</b>是指一種因果錯覺。例如: 獨裁者會覺得自己不可或缺,因為其他的替代方法不是那麼容易看得到,或者可能被特殊利益團體隱藏起來。 美國的Fed可以在造成經濟混亂之後,還相信自己效能不錯。而人們也害怕其他的替代方案。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.171)<span style="color: red;">自行發現的東西才持久</span>。 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.172)我們不能從隨機環境的單一實驗推斷太多事情,<span style="background-color: yellow;">一個實驗需要能夠重複進行,才能顯現某種因果成分</span>。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【</b><b>非線性</b><b>】 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">◎「<b>路徑相依</b>」:一旦人們做了某種選擇,就好比走上了一條不歸之路,慣性的力量會使這一選擇不斷自我強化,並讓你不能輕易走出去。(第9章)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">◎以色列經濟學家<b>奧茲·夏伊</b>(Oz Shy)在《網路產業經濟學》(The Economics of Network Industries)中提出的定義,「當一種產品對用戶的價值隨著採用相同的產品、或可兼容產品的用戶增加而增大時,就出現了<b>網路外部性</b>。」</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">◎<b>麥爾坎˙葛拉威爾</b>《<b>引爆趨勢</b>The Tipping Point(@<b>引爆點</b>)》書中指出,一些變數的行為如何像流行病那樣,過了某個未明定的臨界水準,就會蔓延得極為快速(例如市中心孩子穿的運動鞋,或者宗教理念的散播。書籍的銷售也有類似的效果,一旦超越某個重要的口碑水準,就會爆炸性增長)。為什麼一些意識型態或宗教會像野火那樣擴散開來,而其他則迅速滅絕?狂熱是如何像火那樣燒起來的?觀念病毒是如何激增的?</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">◎想要<b>引爆趨勢</b>,從3個方向去思考:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;">少數原則</span>(找到能引爆的少數關鍵人物)、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;">定著因素</span>(你傳達的訊息吸引人注意、而且令人改變了行為)、</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;">環境力量</span>(人會乖乖的屈服於環境,所以去製造那種環境),這3個就是關鍵!</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">@人們無法預測引爆點確切位於什麼地方。</span></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.229)一個網路的連結愈多,某個人點擊它的機率愈高,於是連結愈多,尤其是如果這種能力沒有遭到重大限制的話。請注意,尋找精確的「臨界點」,有時是愚蠢的行為,因為它們可能不穩定,而且和許多事情一樣,除非事過境遷,否則不可能知道。這些「臨界點」,其實不是點,而是級數嗎?…這些群聚可能難以預測,所以不必把它們的模式看得太認真。同樣的,<span style="background-color: yellow;">重要的是知道這些非線性存在,而不是試著將它們建模</span>。傑出的數學家<b>貝諾˙曼德伯</b>(Benoit Mandelbrot)所做研究的價值,主要在於告訴我們:<span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: white;">有一種「狂野」的隨機性存在,但我們永遠不會懂得太多(肇因於它們的性質不穩定)。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.230)人腦並不適合於<b>非線性</b>。 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.232)<span style="color: red;">任何成功的背後都有非線性效應</span>。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.232)太成功是人的大敵,太失敗則令人氣餒。如能選擇,2者我都不要。</span></span><br />
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.267)<span style="color: red;">我用非線性的方式解讀新聞;</span>某個事件造成2%,重要性不是漲跌1%的2倍,而是4-10倍。波動7%的重要性,可能是波動1%的數十億倍。<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: xx-small; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
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<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【數學】 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.73)<b>數學</b>不只是一種「數字遊戲」,也是一種思考方式。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.94)<b>數學</b>是一種思考方式,而遠非只是一種計算方法。數學主要是用來沉思的工其,不是拿來計算的。 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.229)<b>數學</b>在我們隨機性世界中,只是一種思考和冥想方式,除此之外,幾乎沒有其他的作用。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【代理問題】 </b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">
(P.90)企業和金融機構最近設立一個奇怪的職位,稱作</span><b>風險經理</b><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">,負責監視機構,查核它的業務有沒有過於深入玩俄羅斯輪盤。風險經理的力量相當有限,難以阻止賺錢的交易員不去冒風險(會害股東失去賺錢的寶貴機會)。可是,萬一陣亡,交易員又必須負起責任。…從機構的觀點來看,風險經理的存在和為了實際降低風險比較沒有關係,和降低風險的印象比較有關係。 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.91)<b>風險經理</b>承受的最大風險是表現得太成功,因為這表示我這一行就要消失了。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P159)<span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">代理人會喜歡虧損次數低和獲利次數高,而不是取得最佳的總績效。</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;">
<b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"> </span></b></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span>相關連結<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】</span></b></span></span></span></span><br />
<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/0-1.html"><span style="color: blue;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">《隨機騙局》摘要0 <導讀></span></span></span></span></a><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/5-2.html">《隨機騙局》摘要5-2 <其它></a></span><br />
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Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-89812352403217414462015-10-10T10:41:00.000-07:002015-10-24T15:03:24.341-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要3-2 【幸運的傻瓜】凱因斯、尼德霍夫<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">《</span>隨機騙局<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">》</span>摘要3-2 <span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【幸運的傻瓜】</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"> </span></span></b></span><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【幸運的傻</span></b><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>瓜</b></span>】之4 機率高手與經濟學家 凱因斯 </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.99) 英國經濟學家<b>凱因斯</b>(J M Keynes,1883-1946) ,《論機率》一書作者。凱因斯闖進晦澀的政治經濟學領域之前,是機率研究學者。.他在賺得大錢之後,操作自己的帳戶卻陣亡.。由此可見<span style="color: red;">懂機率的人,不見得會身體力行。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: red; font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">「<b>凱因斯</b>」在其成功的投資生涯中,有3次幾乎傾家蕩產,所以我並不覺得他有何值得張揚之處</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">。</span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【幸運的傻</b><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>瓜</b></span>】之5 實證主義者 尼德霍夫</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.167)
<b>尼德霍夫</b>的信條是:任何「可以檢定的」陳述都應該加以檢定,因為當我們依賴模糊的印象,我們的心智會犯下許多實證錯誤。他的建議,道理很清楚,卻很少有人
實踐。我們視為理所當然的效應,有多少可能不存在?(可以檢定的陳述是指可以細分成計量的成分,並且進行統計檢查) </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.170)
<b>尼德霍夫</b>檢定並假設過去他見到的,可以概化為將來可能發生的事。他根據「市場不曾做過這件事」的假設賣裸選擇權,沒想到跌了個鼻青眼腫。他出售賣權,這句
陳述正確時賺進小錢,但會在這句陳述不對時賠很多錢。當他陣亡,將近20、30年的獲利,被只持續幾分鐘的一件事一筆勾銷。這種歷史陳述的邏輯缺陷,<span style="color: red;">為什麼我們認為在我們自己的過去發生的最糟糕事情,是可能發生的最糟糕事情?如果令你驚訝的過去,不像「它」的過去(過去的過去),為什麼我們的未來會像我們的過去呢?</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_717ce29a0100qg6a.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_717ce29a0100qg6a.html</a></span><br />
...相信現在已經快70歲的<b>尼德霍夫</b>依然在為他第3次的崛起而不懈努力。前幾天有人問到底是分析更重要還是心態更重要,其實看看尼德霍夫的軌跡,這個曾
經的全球10大對沖基金經理人缺經驗和技術麼,卻為何連續被市場上的「黑天鵝」所擊倒,而<b>索羅斯</b>、<b>巴菲特</b>也都發生過巨額的虧損卻始終在證券市場存活呢?</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">我
也開始明白為何我在網絡上認識的幾個「高手」這2年都成了哲學或者藏傳佛教的愛好者或者信徒。想找到在風雲詭譎、九死一生的證券市場上存活,與其在無數證
券分析書中尋找那虛無縹緲的捷徑,不如多看幾本哲學著作、學術著作,改變一下自己的哲學觀和思維方式吧,每個人的一生都是在不斷的做著各種各樣的投機,生
存之道就是構建出適合投機世界存活下去的人生哲學。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">1996年,《The Education of A Speculator投機者養成教育》。2003年,《Practical Speculation華爾街賭局》。2本尼德霍夫的書,前者正處如日中天,鋒芒外露,後者力圖東山再起,潛沉自省。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTYbikAkN2zBLDl03yANswAUUvNlhpV1IkP7nckAnsmyCQxsvUZ2Qn6b1qG_R4c-Z720fKJNOJ4_PqYCBKmjhd73A1Zdn2517SvRmHL-mvwloj-26Dip3K4HpnYGhtsLL_OKgNSLNQXQpE/s1600/%25E5%2580%25AA%25E5%25BE%25B7%25E5%258E%259A%25E5%25A4%25AB1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTYbikAkN2zBLDl03yANswAUUvNlhpV1IkP7nckAnsmyCQxsvUZ2Qn6b1qG_R4c-Z720fKJNOJ4_PqYCBKmjhd73A1Zdn2517SvRmHL-mvwloj-26Dip3K4HpnYGhtsLL_OKgNSLNQXQpE/s200/%25E5%2580%25AA%25E5%25BE%25B7%25E5%258E%259A%25E5%25A4%25AB1.jpg" width="139" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxS0fzSLy5_hAHFploDc7dSQ2KQQHWCV05vfWtC3hpYus_l0dDbW8Zp-ao0zjXd1KddpYJyO9P2OtQMU0bownodSSKEJdHDdZRmfZoVrXfEeYiseOW2_XzeRXVM4ldfBKUDAOS3du0fDCF/s1600/%25E5%2580%25AA%25E5%25BE%25B7%25E5%258E%259A%25E5%25A4%25AB2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxS0fzSLy5_hAHFploDc7dSQ2KQQHWCV05vfWtC3hpYus_l0dDbW8Zp-ao0zjXd1KddpYJyO9P2OtQMU0bownodSSKEJdHDdZRmfZoVrXfEeYiseOW2_XzeRXVM4ldfBKUDAOS3du0fDCF/s200/%25E5%2580%25AA%25E5%25BE%25B7%25E5%258E%259A%25E5%25A4%25AB2.jpg" width="140" /></a></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">盡管如此</span></span><span style="font-size: small;">,<span lang="EN-US">Teleb </span>認為<span lang="EN-US">(P.170)</span>極端的實證主義,以及一個人的推論缺乏邏輯結構,會是相當爆炸性的組合。從<b>尼德霍夫</b>身上應可得到如下教訓:</span></span>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">1</span><span style="font-size: small;">:為什麼我們的未來會像我們的過去呢?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">2</span><span style="font-size: small;">:<span style="color: red;">使用俄羅斯輪盤式策略,小賺的機率高,大賠的機率低,也就是每隔幾年才會使你破產。(那麼幾乎所有的樣本中,你可能都是贏家</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">― </span><span style="color: red;">除了你死掉的那一年。</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【故事】梭倫的警告</b></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.51-52)(P.107)</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">里底亞國王有個克羅伊斯(Croesus)是當時最富有的人。據說希臘的立法者<b>梭倫</b>(Solon)去拜訪他時,並沒有對主人身邊的財富和金碧輝煌的事物表示一絲驚訝,也毫不讚美這些珍寶的主人。
克羅伊斯相當不悅,於是設法要從他口中套出一些恭維的話,梭倫卻無動於衷。最後,克羅伊斯直截了當地逼問,「難道我不能算是最富有、最快樂的人?」 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>梭倫</b>答說:「…快樂可能說變就變。未來的事情會如何,難以預料。…<span style="color: red;">只有受到上天眷顧,直到臨終還快樂的人,或許才能說他真的快樂</span>。」 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">後來國王爭戰失利,即將被活活燒死。國王叫著梭倫的名字喊道:「梭倫,你說的對」(@蓋棺才論定)</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"> </span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">敵人聽到這話,深有所感,想到他自己也是命運未卜,就決定放他一條生路。 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>梭倫</b>很聰明,曉得<span style="background-color: yellow;">得自機運之物,也可能被運氣取回,而且往往出乎意料迅速地被取走。</span>反過來說,得自運氣之助極少的事物,比較不容易出現隨機現象。...梭倫甚至瞭解另一個相關的(結果)偏態(Skewness)問題,<span style="background-color: yellow;">如果失敗的代價過於沉重、難以承受,那麼這件事成功的機率有多高根本無關緊要。</span></span></span></span> <br />
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<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"> </span>Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-69842077361497185472015-10-09T20:25:00.000-07:002015-10-24T14:59:58.474-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要3-1【幸運的傻瓜】尼洛、約翰、卡洛斯<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>《隨機騙局》摘要3-1 </b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【幸運的傻瓜】</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b> </b></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;">(P.66)「<b>幸運的傻</b></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>瓜</b></span>」壓根兒沒想到他們可能只是幸連的傻瓜而已,他們不會想到「運氣」在他們的表現中占有一席之地。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;">(P.68)「<b>幸運的傻</b></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>瓜</b></span>」總是欺騙自己,以為自己的表現能夠超越市場。賺到錢的交易員走路抬頭挺胸,不可一世,而且話說得通常比賠錢的交易員多。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">(P.82)</span>我們一定要提防花錢絕不手軟、「在商言商」的人,因為自封「盈餘」取向的人,最後躺進市場墳墓中的,多得不成比例。他們平常表現得像個「太空超人」,一旦被叫進人事室,像平常那樣討論解雇協議時,便會突然之間臉色發白,低聲下氣,像隻鬥敗的公雞。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;"></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.104)
陣亡交易員有個特色,就是認為自己懂得夠多了。<span style="color: red;">他們承受風險,並不是因為勇敢,而是因為無知。…他們都宣稱「這次不一樣」</span>或者「他們置身其中的市場不一
樣」,而且提出(在經濟上)頭頭是道的知識論點,用以證明他們所說的很有道理,他們沒辦法接受別人的經驗就在那裡。 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.106)心理學家把由於知道後來的資訊,而高估自己在事件發生時所知道的事,稱作事後諸葛偏誤,也就是「我早就知道會這樣」。</span> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;">(P.108)</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">「<b>幸運的傻</b></span></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>瓜</b></span>」</span>可能因為生命中的某些好運而受益,長期而言他的狀況會慢慢趨近於運氣沒那麼好的白癡。每個人都會回歸自己的長期特質。長期而言,每個人都會回歸自己的長期特質。(@不是不報,是時候未到)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;">(P.139)很快就看出他們都具備急性成功的</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>幸運的傻</b></span></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>瓜</b></span></span></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b></b></span></b>的特質。他們的主管和雇主也有相同的特質。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;">(P.140-141)<span style="color: red;">被隨機性愚弄的市場傻</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">瓜</span>(</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>幸運的傻</b></span></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>瓜</b></span></span></span>)大部分特徵: </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">1、高估自己所持信念的準確性。
不管是像卡洛斯那樣相信經濟學,還是像約翰那樣相信統計學,他們都高估自己所持信念的準確性。 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">2、死守部位。 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">3、改變說詞。
他們總是在「投機」和「投資」2種身分之間變來換去。 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">4、沒有事先訂定明確的作戰計畫,以因應發生虧損的可能性。 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">5、欠缺批判性的思維,從不「認賠停損」。 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">6、否認。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">(P.222)</span><span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; color: black;">不是說每個富人都是<s>白癡</s>「隨機的傻瓜」,也沒說過每個不成功的人「運氣」都欠佳。而是說在掌握遠比現在要多的資訊之前,寧可保留判斷。因為這樣比較安全。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-attachment: scroll; background-clip: border-box; background-image: none; background-origin: padding-box; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat; background-size: auto auto; color: black;"></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-attachment: scroll; background-clip: border-box; background-image: none; background-origin: padding-box; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat; background-size: auto auto; color: black;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLVXonnTPZwrsylbd27lSb5YoQC6XETDrThnchg0wlWfLMiD9PPhYUYP6uAFYRreT5H8xGhyphenhyphen3G4u7nUJAhuOlB4LUJagojYwItaV4akJRWnfvf0QoOYkktnu3_-bLHK53oUioUM_XzF-kE/s1600/%25E4%25BF%2584%25E7%25BE%2585%25E6%2596%25AF%25E8%25BC%25AA%25E7%259B%25A44.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="315" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLVXonnTPZwrsylbd27lSb5YoQC6XETDrThnchg0wlWfLMiD9PPhYUYP6uAFYRreT5H8xGhyphenhyphen3G4u7nUJAhuOlB4LUJagojYwItaV4akJRWnfvf0QoOYkktnu3_-bLHK53oUioUM_XzF-kE/s320/%25E4%25BF%2584%25E7%25BE%2585%25E6%2596%25AF%25E8%25BC%25AA%25E7%259B%25A44.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></span></div>
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>【幸運的傻</b></span></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>瓜</b></span>】之1 </b></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>機率懷疑論者 尼洛</b>(@Taleb的化身?)</span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.53-58)<b>尼洛</b>:「我寧可小賠走人,可要是賺錢,那就得狠狠賺一筆才行。」他絕對不想暴露在市場恐慌和突然崩盤,造成交易員剎那間斷頭等稀有事件中。不但如此,他更希望反過來從中獲利。… </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">他學過機率,…尼洛十分懷疑股票市場是一場投資騙局,所以沒辦怯強迫自己擁有1張股票。… </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">新創科技公司的現金流量負值很高,投資人卻緊追不捨。結果持股人因為股票市值而致富,可是他們的財富因此只能依賴市場選擇贏家的隨機性。… </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">尼洛不依賴多頭市場,所以一點也不擔心空頭市場來襲。… </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.59)他絕對不拿儲蓄去冒一丁點風險,所以只將儲蓄投入最安全的政府公債。<span style="color: red;">這種債券是美國政府發行的,而政府非常不可能破產,因為他們可以任意印製鈔票以償還債務。</span> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.60)尼洛相信,<span style="background-color: yellow;">心裡存著風險意識,賣力工作和嚴守紀律,讓人過上舒適生活的機率很高。</span>不這樣的話,一切都會隨機發生:不是必須承受巨大的風險,就是運氣好得出奇。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【幸運的傻</span></b><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>瓜</b></span>】之2 </span></b></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">高收益高交易員約翰 </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.135-138)<b>高收益交易員</b>約翰的交易檯主要做「高收益」交易,買進「廉價」的債券,收益率可能為10%,而他所服務機構的借款利率只有5.5%,因此利差淨賺4.5%。利差似乎不大但他可以運用<b>槓桿</b>,讓這樣的利潤發揮槓桿效應。…</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">約翰為雇主賺進穩定的收入。每年,他創造的收入幾乎都是前1年的2倍。由於可以運用<b>槓桿</b>。不過<span style="color: red;">槓桿有利也有弊,小損失會很快滾成大雪球,把他掃出市場</span>。…</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">約翰在7年內為他做過事的紐約投資銀行賺進鍋1.5億美元左右,卻在短短7天,害最後一位雇主賠掉6億美元以上。…市場並沒有跌很多,但他動用的槓桿太大了。</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.64)淺薄、自大的高收益交易員<b>約翰</b>賺了很多錢,...交易垃圾債券必須懂得「賠率」的概念,也就是知道如何計算稀有(或隨機)事件的機率。<span style="color: red;">投入高收益市場就像臥在鐵軌上打盹。有一天,一列火車出其不意地開過來,你會被活活輾死</span>。
<b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"> </span></span></b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【幸運的傻</span></span></b><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>瓜</b></span>】之3 </span></span></b></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">愛攤平的卡洛斯 </span></span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.130)卡洛斯獲利的主要原因,是他<b>逢低接手</b>。當價格因為短暫性的恐慌而急跌他會加碼敲進。…能夠抓到這些小回檔而賺錢,令他感覺自己戰無不勝。<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">每當市場重挫,他會查證基本面,如果基本面仍然良好,他就買進更多證券</span>,</span>並在市場回升途中減量經營。這麼多年來,他總共為銀行賺進接近8000萬美元,但1998年夏天,才1個夏季,就賠掉3億元。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">(P.139)不管是像<span lang="EN-US"><b>約翰</b>那樣相信統計學</span>,還是像<span lang="EN-US"><b>卡洛斯</b>那樣相信經濟學</span>,<span style="color: black;">他們都高估自己所持信念的準確性。他們從</span>沒想過,以前用經濟變數去操作行得通,或許只是一時<span style="color: red;">巧合</span>而已。…有那麼多可能的經濟理論可用,很容易找到合情合理的一個,用於解釋過去或者過去的一部分。…看似十分嚴格的經濟分析,其實並沒有那麼嚴格。</span></span></span><br />
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.51)<span style="background-color: yellow;">每隔一段時間「市場」就會讓如約翰、卡洛斯之輩,知道誰才是真正的老大。</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;">
<b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span>相關連結<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】</span></b></span></span></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/0-1.html"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">《隨機騙局》摘要0 <導讀></span></span></span></a></span></div>
<span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/3-2.html"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">《隨機騙局》摘要3-2【幸運的傻瓜】 </span></span></span></a></span>
<br />
<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"></span></span> </span>Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-70510420623958185182015-10-09T11:25:00.000-07:002015-10-24T14:57:35.428-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要2-2【隨機性】稀有事件<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">《</span>隨機騙局<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">》</span>摘要2-2【<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">隨機性</span></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】</span></span></b></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">隨機性</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】之 先天不足 後天失調</span></b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"> </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.23)我們應對隨機性的偏誤(後天習得或與生俱來)。...</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.24)我們的大腦看到的這個世界,隨機性遠比實際要少。...稀有事件愈來愈能解釋我們生活中的世界,但依然有違我們的直覺。 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.26)人需要勇氣去自省、挺身面對自己、接受自己的局限性— 科學家找到愈來愈多的證據,發現大自然特地把我們設計成會自我欺騙。 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.29)我們的大腦有時容易倒果為因。譬如,每個聰明、勤奮、執著的人都得到成功,並不意味著每個成功的人,必然聰明、勤奮、執著。 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.83)<span style="color: red;">人傾向於根據輪盤轉出的結果去做預言或抨擊預言,正好可以看出人有根深柢固的無能,沒辦法因應瀰漫現代世界的隨機性複雜結構。</span>混淆預測和預言,是被隨機性愚弄的一種症狀。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.85)我們的腦袋瓜子不是為了了解機率而設訓的。…機率上的大部分結果完全違背直觀。</span></span></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.86)人們不喜歡為了抽象的事物而投保;值得他們注意的風險,總是栩栩如生的東西。</span> </span></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.86)我們的大腦往往尋求膚淺的線索,這些線索大體上取決於我們產生什麼樣的情緒,或者我們心裡容易想到的事情。</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMQ9YZfGhFOmZwE0u65nmD-o1-6Bwj-SEh9wq0p3xUoFv8Aim4-CrqlyU8KJsk8VvFBJdqkZDEYLDLSyBw10d3Uu8iwQooFwMQQCw6hTo3YgQ11REH1JvXwhCb9svLchL-vNsHLU9tYs9j/s1600/%25E9%25BB%2591%25E5%25A4%25A9%25E9%25B5%259D2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMQ9YZfGhFOmZwE0u65nmD-o1-6Bwj-SEh9wq0p3xUoFv8Aim4-CrqlyU8KJsk8VvFBJdqkZDEYLDLSyBw10d3Uu8iwQooFwMQQCw6hTo3YgQ11REH1JvXwhCb9svLchL-vNsHLU9tYs9j/s320/%25E9%25BB%2591%25E5%25A4%25A9%25E9%25B5%259D2.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"></span></span></span></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">隨機性</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】之</span></b></span></span></span></span></span></b></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">稀有事件</span></b> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: small;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">(P151)</span><span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">我設法不常賺錢、盡可能不常賺錢,道理很簡單,因為我相信<b>稀有事件</b>並沒有得到合理的估價,而且事件愈稀有,價格愈是遭人低估。</span>除了我本身的經驗,我想,交易有違直觀的層面,給了我某種形式的優勢。…為什麼這些事件的估價不良?那是因為心理偏誤作祟的關係。<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">(P152)</span>「傳奇性」投資人<b>吉姆</b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">˙</span></b><b>羅傑斯</b>似乎不懂機率和期望值的差別,所以他這輩子似乎賺太多了。<span style="color: red;">很奇怪,</span><span style="color: red;">心思複雜的索羅斯是靠稀有事件賺大錢,卻找羅傑斯當合夥人</span>。<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">
(P157)</span><b>稀有事件</b><span style="font-size: small;">總是出乎意料地來到。</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: small;">(P157)</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>稀有事件</b>通常是<b>恐慌</b>造成的</span>,投資人爭相奪門而逃,同時想要儘快倒出手上持有的任何東西。<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span></span><br />
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">(P157)</span><span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">大部分固定收益金融工具都會發生<b>稀有事件</b>,是挺怪的一件事。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">(@</span>白花花的錢堆在那裏,就會吸引全球各方高手覬覦前來合法打劫<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">)</span></span>
<br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: small;">(P159)</span><span style="font-size: small;"><b>出版商</b>的情形也是一樣;它們出版了一本又一本銷路欠佳的書,經營模式引人質疑<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> · </span>但只要每隔卡年賣到一本像<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span>《哈利波特》那樣的超級暢銷書,就撐得下去<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">― </span>也就是說,它們必須不斷發行大獲好評機率低的高品質書籍。<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: small;">(P159)</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;">金融市場中,有一類交易人是靠反向<b>稀有事件</b>賺錢。在他們看來,波動往往是好消息。這些人常常賠錢,但是金額不大。他們很少賺錢,卻一賺就是一大筆。我把他們叫作<b>危機獵人</b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">(@</span>禿鷹<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">)</span>,也很高興我是他們其中的一員</span>。<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: small;">(P160)</span><span style="font-size: small;">今天使用的統計學概念簡單至極:得到的資訊愈多,你對結果愈有信心。問題來了:多有信心?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">一般的統計方法指出,<b>信賴水準</b>隨觀察次數呈非線性比例關係而穩定升高。換句話說,<span style="color: red;">樣本數增加<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">n</span>倍,我們的知識會增加<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">n</span>的平方根。</span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: small;">(P160)</span><span style="font-size: small;">如果紅球的機率很低,黑球居於多數的甕內,那麼我們對甕內有沒有紅球的知識會增加得很緩<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">― </span>比乘以<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">n</span>的期望平方根要慢。另一方面,一旦找到<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">1</span>顆紅球,我們對甕內有紅球的知識會急速增加。<span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">這種<strike>知識</strike>(@結果)的不對稱可不是件小事;它是本書的核心。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b> </b></span></span></span> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span>相關連結<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】</span></b></span></span></span></span><br />
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<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/0-1.html"><span style="color: blue;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">《隨機騙局》摘要0 <導讀></span></span></span></span></a><br />
<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/2-2.html"><span style="color: blue;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">《隨機騙局》摘要2-1【隨機性】俄羅斯輪盤</span></span></span></span></span></a></div>
Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-23313213918805665612015-10-09T08:20:00.001-07:002015-10-24T15:08:14.655-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要2-1【隨機性】俄羅斯輪盤<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>《隨機騙局》摘要2-1【隨機性】 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【隨機性】</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.45)我相信,<span style="background-color: yellow;">有個世界誤將運氣認為技能的習慣最為盛行,也最為明顯,這就是「市場」</span>。…(P.46)舉例來說,我們抱持錯誤的印象,以為某個策略是絕佳的策略、某位創業家天生懷有「遠見」,或者某位交易員是才華橫溢型,但後來才發現,他們過去的表現,有99.9%歸因於機運,而且只和機運有關。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">請一位獲利的投資人解釋他的成功原因,他會以深入且具說服力的理由,解讀他獲得的成果。這些錯錯覺往往是故意製造出來的,稱之為「招搖撞騙」也不為過。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span lang="EN-US">(P.202</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)壞掉的鐘1天也有</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次準的。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span lang="EN-US">(P.202)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以1萬名虛擬投資經理人</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,</span></span></span></span></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">使</span></span></span></span></span></span>用</span></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: red;">勝率</span></span><span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US">50%</span></span></span></span></span></span></span>蒙地卡羅產生器擲出硬幣,出現正面的話,某位經理人那</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年會賺</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬美元;出現反面則會賠</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬美元。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年結束時,預期會有</span><span lang="EN-US">5000</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位經理人各賺</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬美元、</span><span lang="EN-US">5000</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位經理人各賠</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬美元。接著再仿真</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,同樣的預期會有</span><span lang="EN-US">25000</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位經理人連續第</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年獲利。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,是</span><span lang="EN-US">1250</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位,</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,是</span><span lang="EN-US">625</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位,</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,只剩下</span><span lang="EN-US">313</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在輸贏機率各半的遊戲中,我們現在有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">313</span><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位經理人連續</span><span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US">5</span></span><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年獲利。這純粹是靠機運得來的</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;">(@事實上</span></span><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,</span></span></span>投顧業是反過來操作的)</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span lang="EN-US">(P.203)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">將以上(P.202)的論點進一步延伸,</span></span></span><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;">
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬名虛擬投資經理人,完全由能力差</span><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">(期望報酬是負值)</span></span></span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的經理人組成。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我們使用一台<span style="color: red;">勝率</span></span><span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US">45%</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">蒙地卡羅產生器</span></span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">從甕中抽球。甕中有</span><span lang="EN-US">100</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">顆球,</span><span lang="EN-US">45</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">顆是黑的,</span><span lang="EN-US">55</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">顆是紅的。抽完再放回去,所以紅球相對於黑球的比率始終相同。如果抽到黑球,經理人賺</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬美元。抽到紅球,他賠</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬美元</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。因此,每位經理人可望有</span><span lang="EN-US">45</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">%的機率賺進</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬美元,</span><span lang="EN-US">55</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">%的機率賠掉</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬美元。平均而言,經理人每一回合會賠</span><span lang="EN-US">1000</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">美元―</span> <span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">但這只是平均值而已。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年結束時,我們預期會有</span><span lang="EN-US">4500</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位經理人獲利</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">占全部經理人的</span><span lang="EN-US">45</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">%</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,其中的</span><span lang="EN-US">45</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">%是</span><span lang="EN-US">2025</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,有</span><span lang="EN-US">911</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位;</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,有</span><span lang="EN-US">410</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位;</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;">第<span lang="EN-US">5</span>年,有<span lang="EN-US">184</span>位。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;">我們給存活下來的經理人命名,讓他們穿上西裝。沒錯,<span style="color: red;">他們占原始群體的不到<span lang="EN-US">2</span>%。但他們會成為眾所矚目的焦點</span>。沒有人會去提另外的<span lang="EN-US">98%</span>。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: scroll; background-clip: border-box; background-image: none; background-origin: padding-box; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat; background-size: auto auto;">(P.221)</span></span><span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">有些靠隨機性吃飯的行業,如賭場,績效必須靠運氣的成分很低</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.222)<span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; color: black;">不是說每個富人都是<s>白癡</s>「隨機的傻瓜」,也沒說過每個不成功的人「運氣」都欠佳。而是說在掌握遠比現在要多的資訊之前,寧可保留判斷。因為這樣比較安全。</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjp8mmHdzKHq8XmxK-eJ3tJhrkRywGvpsf9f5ZicKpXAzDFAqUDTQAaZg6SWSkayzB-x5ykl9lxiNwpG0TElJvnzKK66-DW_MH3yDGKAIFv9u7nOgkxdtoEVbohzWJm33TvElG9jJvN4S-/s1600/%25E9%259A%25A8%25E6%25A9%259F%25E9%25A8%2599%25E5%25B1%25803.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjp8mmHdzKHq8XmxK-eJ3tJhrkRywGvpsf9f5ZicKpXAzDFAqUDTQAaZg6SWSkayzB-x5ykl9lxiNwpG0TElJvnzKK66-DW_MH3yDGKAIFv9u7nOgkxdtoEVbohzWJm33TvElG9jJvN4S-/s1600/%25E9%259A%25A8%25E6%25A9%259F%25E9%25A8%2599%25E5%25B1%25803.jpg" /></a></span></span></div>
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.204)某個市場中,績效紀錄出色的經理人數目有多少,主要得看踏進投資這一行的經理人數目有多少。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span lang="EN-US">(P.205)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一直擲正反機率各半的硬幣,擲很久的時間,並將結果記在紙上。如果序列夠長,你可能看到連續</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次正面或者連續</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次反面,甚至各有</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次之多。可是你曉得儘管連續出現多次正面或反面,下次擲出正面或反而的條件機率還是</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">%。設想這些正面或反面可以為一個人的金庫贏錢或輸錢。多出的正面或多出的反面,偏離了常態完全可歸因於機運。換句話說,它們可歸因於<b>變異</b>,和假設中的玩家擁有的技能無關</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">因為擲出正面或反面的機率相同</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.206)<b>遍歷性</b>,也就是時間會消除惱人的隨機性效應。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.206)務必記住:<span style="background-color: yellow;">沒人會接受自己的成功帶有隨機性,只有失敗時,才會接受那種看法。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span lang="EN-US">(P.206)</span>儘管過去<span lang="EN-US">5</span>年有些經理人有賺錢,我們預期未來任何一段期間,他們會變成不賺不賠。他們的表現不會比原始群體中比較早失敗的人好,<span style="background-color: yellow;">我們要看的是長期。</span><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"> </span></span><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: white;">存活者偏誤取決於原始群體的規模。</span>一個人過去賺到一點錢這個資訊,單單它本身既無意義,也無關緊要。<span style="color: red;">我們需要知道他來自的群體大小。</span>換句話說,如果不知道有多少經理人嘗試過且失敗了<span lang="EN-US">(</span>無法知道抽樣母體有多大<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,我們無法評估績效紀錄是不是有效。<span style="color: red;">如果原始群體只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">10</span><span style="color: red;">位經理人,我會不貶一下眼睛,就把一半的存款交給表現優異的人。要是原始群體由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">1</span><span style="color: red;">萬位經理人組成,我不會在意他們的成果</span>,後面這種情形經常見到。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><span lang="EN-US">(P.208)</span>投顧公司從電話簿抽出萬個人名,寄出後市看漲的信給其中一半的人後市看跌的信則寄給另一半的人。下個月,有<span lang="EN-US">5000</span>個人接到的信,證明預測正確,他用同樣的手法寄第<span lang="EN-US">2</span>封預測信給他們。再<span lang="EN-US">1</span>個月,對剩下的<span lang="EN-US">1500</span>百人做同樣的事,如此直到名單縮減為<span lang="EN-US">500</span>人,其中可望有<span lang="EN-US">200</span>人上鉤。只要投資價值幾千元的郵票,便可能撈進數百萬元。</span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>【</b></span></span><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">隨機性</span></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】之 俄羅斯輪盤 </span></span></b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.72)一把彈匣可裝6發子彈的左輪手槍,已裝進1顆子彈,用1000萬美元和你賭俄羅斯輪盤。每扣1次扳機算作1個歷史,所以總共有6個機率相同的可能歷史。6個歷史中的5個,會使你腰纏萬貫,另1個歷史則需要寫訃聞。
問題是,真實生活中,我們只能觀察到1個歷史。新聞記者會對贏得1000萬美元的人讚譽有加。玩俄羅斯輪盤的贏家,可能會被家人、朋友和鄰居捧為角色典範。 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.73)假使25歲的年輕人1年賭1次俄羅斯輪盤,他能活到50歲生日的機會微乎其微。但如果玩這種遊戲的人夠多,例如有幾千位25歲的年輕人都在玩,那麼可以預期會有一些非常富有的人活了下來(當然還有一大片墓園)。 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.73)賭俄羅斯輪盤賺來的1000萬美元,和勤快而技巧熟練的牙醫執業賺得的1000萬美元,金額相同,但價值不同。它們能買到相同的產品,在會計師看來,它們完全相同。你的鄰居也覺得它們沒有兩樣。但其一對隨機性的依賴大於另一,在我內心深處,忍不住認為它們的「質」不同。</span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">隨機性</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】之 俄羅斯輪盤2 </span></b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.75)<span style="color: red;">現實遠比俄羅斯輪盤惡毒。
</span>如果說它是一把左輪手槍,那麼它的彈匣能裝幾百發、幾千發。其次,它射出致命子彈的次數相當少。<span style="color: red;">試射幾10次都沒事。之後,我們便產生虛假的安全感,忘了裡面還有1顆子彈。</span>本書把這一點稱作<b>黑天鵝</b>問題。 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.75)人可能不知不覺中就玩起俄羅斯輪盤,卻說得很好聽,認為「風險很低」。我們只見到財富產生出來,卻不曾看到過程,結果忘了風險,<span style="color: red;">永遠沒想到輸家</span>。</span><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"> </span></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">【隨機性】好的一面</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">(P.231)隨機結果的非線性特質,有時可當作一種工具使用,以打破僵局。</span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">…</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">有些時候,</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">且讓命運女神決定怎麼做,人只要欣然接受就行。</span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">…人們也常陷入和「<b>布里丹驢子</b>」相似的處境,只好用「丟硬幣」的方式,去解開人生中的一些小僵局,也就是允許隨機性幫助你做決定。 </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: black;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span>相關連結<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】</span></b></span></span></span></span><br />
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<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/0-1.html"><span style="color: blue;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">《隨機騙局》摘要0 <導讀></span></span></span></span></a><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/2-2.html"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">《隨機騙局》摘要2-2【隨機性】稀有事件 </span></span></span></span></a></span></div>
Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-80313773493097510612015-10-08T02:19:00.002-07:002015-10-24T14:53:19.150-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要1-1【獨立思考】新聞媒體<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">@欣賞一下Taleb 的酸言酸語</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">,卻是不無道理</span></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">。</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">獨立思考</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】之 新聞媒體 </span></b></span></span><br />
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<![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(P.108)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">要知道某個人是不是笨到極點</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體;">(</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">或聰明絕頂</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體;">)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">,最好的測試是看他認不認為金融和政治<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">新聞</b>有意義</span></span></span></span>。《黑天鵝語錄》<br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">
(P.87)<b>新聞媒體</b>可能是今天讓我們最苦惱的東西之一,眾多原因裡面的一個― 世界日益複雜,我們的心智卻被訓練得愈來愈簡單。 </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.87)<b>新聞媒體</b>表述的世界肯定不切實際。它們<span style="color: red;">透過情感器官― 抓住你的注意力<span style="color: black;">,大大愚弄你</span></span>。以<b>狂牛病</b>的「威脅」例子來說:這個話題熱了10年,卻只有數百人死亡(最高的估計值),而<b>車禍</b>死亡人數卻高達數10萬― 但新聞媒體報導後者,不會有商業利益。 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.110)大量轟炸我們的「緊急」<b>新聞</b>,…讓人分心,一般而言也沒有用處,而是在於它具有毒性。<span style="color: red;">人們不了解新聞媒體是靠引起我們的注意才有收入</span>。</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.112)律師並不關心真相是什麼,只在意能用什麼論點左右陪審團的意見,因為他十分清楚陪審團心智上的弱點。<b>新聞媒體</b>也一樣,心裡想的只是用什麼樣合適的新聞話語補捉我們的<b>注意力</b>。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.85)既然<b>新聞從業人員</b>投合閱聽群眾的世俗認知才有薪水可領,我們何必跟他們一般見識而爭論不休?…我不否認論點應該簡化,以發揮最大的潛力。但如果複雜的觀念沒辦法簡化成新聞媒體喜歡的說法時,人們常常就誤以為提出觀念的人本身混淆不清。 </span> </span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.25)大多數<b>記者</b>都不清楚他們知道的事,遠遠低於他們認為自己知道的? </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.108)新聞<b>記者</b>應該像歷史學家那樣看事情,並且淡化他所提供的資訊之價值表現才會出色。例如他可以說:「今天股市上漲但這個資訊不是很重要,因為主要是雜訊造成的。」但如此輕視手頭上的資訊,他一定會丟掉飯碗。現在不只新聞記者很難像歷史學家那樣思考,連歷史學家也愈來愈像新聞記者。 </span></span></span><br />
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.262)<span style="color: red;">新聞<b>記者</b>接受的訓練是自我表達方法,不是深入探討事件的真相</span>― 他們的甄選過程有利於最壇長溝通的人出線,見多識廣的人不見得吃香。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.262)許多醫藥<b>新聞記者</b>幾乎總是誤解醫學研究報告使用的機率。他們最常混淆「<b>沒有證據顯示</b>(absence of evidence)」與「<b>證據顯示沒有</b>(evidence of absence)」。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.264)電視節目的<b>專家</b>可能是因為外表、魅力、能說會道而被選上,但絕不是因為他們見識過人。(@收視率考量)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.266)新聞<b>記者</b>和比較文學的見習教授一樣,<span style="color: red;">拿薪水是為了解釋事情,所以樂於馬上提供種種解釋。</span>唯一的解決方怯,是請彭博停止支付薪水給記者寫評論。</span></span><br />
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">(P.30)</span><span style="font-size: small;">書是唯一尚未受到褻牘腐化的媒體</span><span style="font-size: small;">:</span><span style="font-size: small;">其他在你眼皮底下的媒體</span><span style="font-size: small;">;</span><span style="font-size: small;">無一不是在拿廣告操縱你。</span><span style="font-size: small;">《黑天鵝語錄》 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.32)要完全根除讀報的瘋疾,請花1年時間去讀上個星期的報紙。《黑天鵝語錄》 </span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwHBMHb6TIHdDzXzfQpx0Bq-7f5GUp6_KLbXM4eQ4iWg4MJLy0KGXH7WN_RuNVlejICWLYuO5uVnjSVpMJl-jifh7lHa60_-Yx5203ydmXLYHEGwxh-UFRu1gh_ZybHnkfNa8cKWTWar3_/s1600/%25E8%25A8%2598%25E8%2580%2585.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwHBMHb6TIHdDzXzfQpx0Bq-7f5GUp6_KLbXM4eQ4iWg4MJLy0KGXH7WN_RuNVlejICWLYuO5uVnjSVpMJl-jifh7lHa60_-Yx5203ydmXLYHEGwxh-UFRu1gh_ZybHnkfNa8cKWTWar3_/s320/%25E8%25A8%2598%25E8%2580%2585.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></span></div>
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【獨立思考】之 過濾「雜訊」</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.266)<span style="background-color: yellow;">怎麼判斷純雜訊的?顯著性、因果性、信賴水準</span> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.267)我 用了一招,以判斷世界上是不結真有什麼大事正要發生。把彭博機器的螢慕設定的貨幣、股票、利率、商品等世界上所有相關金融上具的價格和漲跌幅度全放在一 起。我將貨幣放在左上角,各股票市場放在右邊,多年來觀察相同的螢幕畫面,日積月累,就產生一種本能直覺,能夠知道楚不是有重大的事情正要發生。個中祕 訣,<span style="color: red;">只看變動百分率大的</span>。除非波動高於平常每天的漲跌幅度,否則我把相關的事件視為雜訊。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.110)我偶爾一早搭火車前往紐約,看 到一大堆抑鬱的通勤族把頭埋在《華爾街日報》中,總是十分詫異。…我們很難斷定他們是因為看報紙才顯得抑鬱,還是抑鬱的人喜歡看報紙,而且看起來睡眼惺忪 抑鬱寡歡。我剛踏進職場時,看到有人如此關注雜訊,心裡總是沒好氣,因為我認為,這種資訊缺乏統計<b>顯著性</b>,不足以推導出有意義的結論。不過,我現在可是樂見這種情形。我現在把人們閱讀這種資料,看成是一種保單,因為這樣一來,我才能繼續待在選擇權交易這麼有趣的一行,和被隨機性愚弄的傻蛋對作。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【獨立思考】之 機率偏誤 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">金融專家違反機率法則的一些常見錯誤:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>你現在應該死了 </b> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.264)某位著名的電視金融大師說:「美國人平均可望活到<span style="color: red;">73</span>歲。所以如果你現在<span style="color: red;">68</span>歲,預期會再活<span style="color: red;">5</span>年,那就應該為此好好規劃。」她接著講得非常清楚明白,說這個人應該如何規劃5年的投資。但如果你現在是<span style="color: red;">80</span>歲呢?你的預期壽命是<span style="color: red;">-7</span>歲嗎?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">剛出生時,你的無條件預期壽命可能是73歲。但是隨著年齡與日俱增,而且沒有死亡,你的預期壽命會跟著你的歲數而提高。為什麼?因為其他死掉的人,已經占去你在統計數字上的位置,而期望值就是指平均值。所以說,如果你現在73歲,健康狀況良好,你可能仍然有9年的期望值。但是期望值會改變到了82歲,如果你還活著,你會再有5年的期望值。即使百歲人瑞,也還是有正條件預期壽命。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.264)你是第100個開刀者,於是醫生對你說:「很不巧,手術成功率是99%,但前面99個人都成功,所以你100%會死在手術台上。」,這樣對嗎?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【獨立思考】</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.110)做決定的人處於不確定的狀態時,應該盡量少接觸新聞媒體。 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: small;"><b>【相關連結】</b><span style="font-size: xx-small; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"> </span></span><br />
<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2012/11/blog-post.html">【隨機的致富陷阱】摘要與心得 (2012)</a><br />
<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/0-1.html"><span style="color: blue;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">《隨機騙局》摘要0 <導讀></span></span></span></span></a> <br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/6.html">《隨機騙局》摘要6-1<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">【哲思】</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">實證主義的問題</span></span></span>→<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">歸納法的</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">問題</span>→</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="background-color: yellow;">否證論者</span></span></a></span></span>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: xx-small; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"> </span></span>
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Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-48749641274154462742015-10-06T14:35:00.002-07:002015-10-24T14:53:48.801-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要1-2 【獨立思考】情緒<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">《</span>隨機騙局<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">》</span>摘要<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">1-2 </span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">獨立思考</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】情緒</span></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">獨立思考</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】 之 </span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">情緒</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.86)人們不喜歡為了抽象的事物而投保;值得他們注意的風險,總是栩栩如生的東西。
(P.86)<span style="color: red;">我們的大腦往往尋求膚淺的線索,這些線索大體上取決於我們產生什麼樣的情緒,或者我們心裡容易想到的事情</span>。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.86)風險偵測和風險規避都不是由大腦的「思維」部分調節,而是在很大的程度內由情緒的部分調節(感覺到的風險)。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.87)情緒化會將我們的注意焦點移轉到錯誤的地方— 當報導非洲和東南亞人民營養不良,</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">…營養不良正因為缺乏這種關注而受到最大的傷害。</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.87)一個人的心理機率地圖側重於感覺,捨棄新聞反而能夠得到資訊利益。 </span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.87)在人們心裡,價格下跌的「波動性」遠高於價格激漲。而<span style="color: red;">波動性似乎不是取決於實際的漲跌,而是由媒體的論調決定</span>。…當新聞媒體探討「恐怖行動的威脅」,便放大了「市場波動」在人們腦海中的影響力度。 </span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">不再能夠引起情感上的衝擊時,這樣的新聞便得淡出畫面。</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="msg-item-icon _textMore"> </span></span></span> <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="cursor_pointer msg-item-star msg-item-icon msg-item-circle _star off msg-item__action"> </span></span></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.88)愛因斯坦:常識不過是18歲以前學得的一堆誤解。</span></span></span><br />
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.261)我們的行動,並不完全是由掌管理性的大腦部分引導的。<span style="color: red;">我們是以情感去思考,沒辦法繞過它</span>。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.261)下面哪件事一讓人比較不愉快: </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">損失1美元100次,或者 1次損失100美元?</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">顯然是第1件。我們面對損失的敏感性會不斷下降。因此,如果交易人採行的交易政策是每天賺1美元,維持很長的時間,然後失去全部,雖然這在經濟上毫無意義,但從享樂的觀點來說,卻是令人愉快的。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">所以我們會有誘因,想要針對事件發生的可能性,編造一個故事,然後執行這樣的策略。除此之外,還有不知有風險的因素存在。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">科學家曾經找人來測試我在前言中提到的由於低估風險,不是因為勇敢而冒險的行為。受測者被要求預測證券價格未來會落在哪個範圍內。他們必須懷著98%的信心,預估證券價格的上限和下限。結果證券價格落在上下限之外的百分率高達30%。這是一個嚴重的問題,表示人總是高估自己的知識和低估他們犯錯的機率。</span></span><br />
<br />
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">獨立思考</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】 之 </span></b><b>神經生物學</b></span> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">◎</span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>休謨</b>(Hume,1711-1776)說:「理性只能告訴我們什麼東西是事實,但是事實沒辦法引起(cause)行為,只有情欲(passions)、慾望(desires)和 傾向(inclinations)才能引起行為。<span style="color: red;">因此,決定行為的是慾望和其它的心理狀態,而不是理性</span>。」 </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.254<span lang="EN-US">)</span><b>達馬西奧</b>(Antonio R Damasio):「完全沒有情感的人,連最簡單的決定也做不出來。」</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">→很令人驚訝。因為我努力成為不帶情感的思考者,或許有情感才能分辨事情的輕重緩急。</span></span></div>
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.254)對某個人的一塊大腦執行燒灼手術,唯一的結果是無法寄存情緒,此外沒有其他影響。…把一個人的智力和他的情感分離開來。現在你有了不受感覺和情緒妨礙的<span style="color: red;">純理性人。完全沒有情感的人,連最簡單的決定也做不出來。</span>他早上沒辦法從床上爬起來,而且整天為了怎麼做決定而空轉。非常驚訝吧?<span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">人少了情感,就做不出決定。</span> </span></span>
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<a name='more'></a><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【故事】<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">看盤時間與</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">情緒赤字</span></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.117-118)
<b>快樂的退休牙醫</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">有個快樂的退休牙醫,他十分擅長於投資賺得的報酬率可望比國庫券高15%,每年的誤差率(波動性)是10%。這表示100個樣本中,預期有接近68個落在超額報酬率5-25%(15%+/-10%)範圍內。有95個樣本路徑會落在-5-35%之間。
15%的報酬率、每年10%的波動性,換算成任何1年的成功機率為93%。但是如表所示,從窄時間尺度來看,
任何1秒成功的機率只有50.02%。在非常窄的時間尺度內,賺賠觀察值幾乎相抵。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaEJCtzXhvsabNMSCeVhiWsk6noeElp6Og7imdj_9_hU5l0naM1ZFeR_KrLPFBSOm2ox91EQDC8iP93V3GCWD7lUv5MCbbGDsUtgKrrbf-gTMYW51G7ELEFEXmp6t8om1s0T91UzmTrAEY/s1600/%25E5%25BF%25AB%25E6%25A8%2582%25E7%2589%2599%25E9%2586%25AB.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaEJCtzXhvsabNMSCeVhiWsk6noeElp6Og7imdj_9_hU5l0naM1ZFeR_KrLPFBSOm2ox91EQDC8iP93V3GCWD7lUv5MCbbGDsUtgKrrbf-gTMYW51G7ELEFEXmp6t8om1s0T91UzmTrAEY/s320/%25E5%25BF%25AB%25E6%25A8%2582%25E7%2589%2599%25E9%2586%25AB.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">假設他<span style="color: #3d85c6;">每分鐘盯盤1次</span>,1天有8個交易小時,他每天會有241分鐘心情愉快,239分鐘不愉快。相當於每年分別有60688分鐘愉快和60271分鐘不愉快。這位牙醫由於情緒緊繃,螢幕一跳出紅字(表示損失),他便心痛如絞。 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">假設他<span style="color: #3d85c6;">每月盯盤1次</span>,由於有67%的月份賺錢,所以他每年只心痛4次,卻有8次好心情。同樣這位牙醫,使用相同的策略,卻有不同的結果。 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">再假設這位牙醫<span style="color: #3d85c6;">每年只看盤1次</span>,那麼在可望有20年的餘生中,他將體驗到19次驚喜,只有1次不愉快!
同一個牙醫,使用相同的策略,卻因為時間尺度的關係而產生不同的效果,換句話說,如果牙醫以很高的頻率檢視投資組合的表現,反而會給自己製造大量的情緒赤字。</span></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">◎</span>同一個牙醫,使用相同的策略,卻因為時間尺度的關係而產生不同的效果,換句話說,如果牙醫<span style="color: red;">以很高的頻率檢視投資組合的表現,反而會給自己製造大量的情緒赤字。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【相關連結】</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/0-1.html"><span style="color: blue;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">《隨機騙局》摘要0 <導讀></span></span></span></span></a><b> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/1-1.html">《隨機騙局》摘要<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">1-1 </span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">獨立思考</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">】</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"> </span></a></span></span>
<br />
<b></b>Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-30480852047388930702015-10-06T07:21:00.005-07:002015-10-24T15:04:15.036-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要4-1 【存活者偏誤】 <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>《隨機騙局》摘要4-1</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">◎<span style="background-color: yellow;">大部分的成功學都是不科學的</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="background-color: yellow;">,你頂多只當它是「安慰劑」,代表你做了某種「選擇」,願意「喝了再上」。</span><span style="color: red;">一個人必須出去買彩券,才有可能中大獎。並不表示到彩券行走一趟會使你中獎</span>,其理甚明。</span><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"> </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">【存活者偏誤】 </span></b></span></span><br />
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<![endif]--></span></b></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-size: small;">不會發生?錯!是還沒發生<span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">。</span></span></span></span> <br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-size: xx-small; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">◎</span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">存活者偏誤</span></b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:當取得資訊之管道,僅來自於倖存者時</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">因為無從由死者獲得來源</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,此資訊可能會存在與實際情況不同之偏差。例如投資理財之電視節目常邀請投資成功者上節目談
論其成功投資之經驗,觀眾會將該成功投資者投資之方式,視為高成功率之投資方式,但觀眾並不會在電視節目看到以相同或類似投資方式,但最後失敗的投資者,
因而高估此投資方式之成功機率。</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.109)
主張接受「新事物」,甚至「新新事物」的論點如下所述;看看汽車、飛機、電話、個人電腦等新技術的到來,造成多麼急遽的變化。一般人所做的推論會帶領我們
相信所有的新技術和發明,都會使我們的生活起了革命性的變化。但是答案沒那麼清楚。我們似乎只看到贏家和只知計算它們的數目,卻排除了輸家。<span style="background-color: yellow;">我們可以不看
輸家嗎?</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.110)
人們往往因為看到某些發明使我們的生活起了革命性的變化</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">,</span>便推論我們應當支持發明和除舊布新。我的看法剛好相反。錯過飛機和汽車等「新新事物」的機會成本,
和我們為了找到珠寶,必須在一大堆垃圾中搜尋,忍受它們的毒性相比,實在微不足道。</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">(P.220-221)</span><b>科學</b>也被有害的<b>存活者偏誤</b>給污染。研究工作和新聞報導類似,沒有得到任何成果,就不會發表。<span lang="EN-US">…</span>問題是,<span style="color: red;">人們把「發現沒有」和「沒有去發現」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">2</span><span style="color: red;">者混為一談</span>。<span lang="EN-US">…</span>許多科學成果並沒有發表,因為它們在統計上並不顯著,不過它們還是提供了一些資訊。這造成了更大的問題。</span></span> </span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">(P.141)我們可能倒果為因:因為他們賺了錢,所以我們認為他們是好交易人。一個人有可能完全靠隨機性,在金融市場賺到錢。</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>約翰</b></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">和</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>卡洛斯</b></span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">都屬於因為市場週期而受益的那-類人。他們能夠賺到錢,不只因為他們踏進正確的市場,也<span style="color: red;">因為他們的交易風格,非常適合那段期間市場的特質</span>。1992-1998年夏天那段歷史期間,剛好擁有那種特質的人,大都能縱橫於市場</span></span></span>之中。<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.169)58年來,我對布希總統做了接近21000次的觀察,發現他不曾有1次死掉。所以可以宣稱他將萬壽無疆,而且統計<b>顯著性</b>很高嗎﹖ </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(P.197)長久以來,連專業人士也犯下忽視存活者偏誤的錯。因為<span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">我們受過的訓練,要善用眼前的資訊,但卻忽視沒有看到的資訊。</span>美國和歐洲的<b>退休基金</b>與保險公司不知為什麼接受「長期而言,股票總是有9%報酬率」的說法,並以統計數字作為佐證。統計數字是對的,但它們是過去的歷史。我的看法是:我可以在4萬種買得到的證券中,找到一種,每年的漲幅高達這個數字的2倍,絕不出錯。這麼說,我們應該拿社會安全資金去買嗎﹖</span></span><br />
<br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSZ4kbY7MuuwEbYWxb8dpX4NrWOB0XQ4VsSuS0d80YkYSfucTJdpJVxAjIxpafE4mlDYrWn_9z-MkhEug67C8XR3saR-qc0Yy3ELo_HIt702WxPbHMp69E6evPWzrgFgyqoFUR5LsQPL0S/s1600/%25E8%25AE%2580%25E6%259B%25B88.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSZ4kbY7MuuwEbYWxb8dpX4NrWOB0XQ4VsSuS0d80YkYSfucTJdpJVxAjIxpafE4mlDYrWn_9z-MkhEug67C8XR3saR-qc0Yy3ELo_HIt702WxPbHMp69E6evPWzrgFgyqoFUR5LsQPL0S/s320/%25E8%25AE%2580%25E6%259B%25B88.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【存活者偏誤】 我看過最好的-本書!</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />(P.212)我很喜歡逛書店,毫無目標地翻閱一本又一本的書,決定值不值得花時間去讀。經常只看書衣一時衝動就買下某本書。書衣上經常有某人寫的讚辭,或者從書評摘錄下來的一段文字。這有什麼問題嗎?<br />這其實也是一種「存活者偏誤」,生活中總不自覺地被愚弄。<br />親愛的,出版公司只會把最好的讚辭放上書衣。<br />有些更進一步,從反應冷淡、甚至不利的書評中,斷章取義地挑一些看來好像在讚美的文字。…<br />商業裹上文化的糖衣,商業究竟還是商業。 </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZZUZe93EdwhW3q-x7YoZrlk7GpqJyQ7VsYm77Et3x3-Er_2WUiDhdCdHKhq9cP-KNBXpsqmfUGMVqN9egl_rs48Xa_Hm1pW7NUHAh3G-TI03xhEOb6mZv5qoLB7b_tMHHBwCZz-F9KWqY/s1600/%25E7%25BE%2585%25E8%25B3%2593%25E6%25BC%25A2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZZUZe93EdwhW3q-x7YoZrlk7GpqJyQ7VsYm77Et3x3-Er_2WUiDhdCdHKhq9cP-KNBXpsqmfUGMVqN9egl_rs48Xa_Hm1pW7NUHAh3G-TI03xhEOb6mZv5qoLB7b_tMHHBwCZz-F9KWqY/s320/%25E7%25BE%2585%25E8%25B3%2593%25E6%25BC%25A2.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></span></div>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【存活者偏誤】</b></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>「羅賓漢」式投資策略</b></span></span></b></span></span> <br />(P.197)一位同行計算了<b>「羅賓漢」式投資政策</b>的成功機率。這種政策是指投資於一群經理人中表現最差的那個。根據這樣的政策,你必須把錢從贏家那裡收回來,分配給輸家。這和一般人所想,應該把錢從輸家經理人那裡撒回,改投資於贏家經理人的作法恰好相反。他們模擬執行這種「紙上策略」獲得的報酬,遠高於緊抱贏家經理人。在他們看來,這個假設例子似乎證實了我們不應該像平常會做的那樣、緊守最優秀的經理人,而應該轉向擁抱最差的經理人。</span></span>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">任何研究生應該一眼就能指出,他的分析呈現一個嚴重的缺失。他們的樣本只有存活者,根本忘了考慮混不下去而退出這一行的經理人。這樣的樣本包括模擬期間有在操作、且迄今仍在操作的經理人。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>【相關連結】</b><span style="font-size: xx-small; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"> </span></span></span><br />
<a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/0-1.html"><span style="color: blue;"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope" style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">《隨機騙局》摘要0 <導讀></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue; font-size: small;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/0.html"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></span></a></span></span> <br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/4-2.html">《隨機騙局》摘要4-2 【雙重存活者偏誤】</a> </span></span></div>
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Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272143074598354623.post-62905262089510430512015-10-03T06:57:00.003-07:002015-10-10T20:01:29.166-07:00《隨機騙局》摘要6-2【哲思】實證主義的問題→歸納法的問題→否證論者<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>《隨機騙局》摘要6-2<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">【哲思】</span></b><b><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><b>實證主義的問題</b></span></span></span></b>→<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b>歸納法的</b></span><b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">問題</span></b>→</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>否證論者</b></span></span></span></span>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikTPjCI2Bm4KI8eDs8VaZAma2QxfkfsMGpPTpSnFEIuejA4ea48ijVGOfchsgvrQ-gkHSE6x1CcAM7RMU9pl5hunxC-57G_rk0JIktRZjaqpLJcr4QybIqFGWJ3gznjBLjrCdyydYsxbVv/s1600/%25E4%25BC%2591%25E8%25AC%25A8David+Hume3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikTPjCI2Bm4KI8eDs8VaZAma2QxfkfsMGpPTpSnFEIuejA4ea48ijVGOfchsgvrQ-gkHSE6x1CcAM7RMU9pl5hunxC-57G_rk0JIktRZjaqpLJcr4QybIqFGWJ3gznjBLjrCdyydYsxbVv/s400/%25E4%25BC%2591%25E8%25AC%25A8David+Hume3.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">【哲思2】</span></b></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b>歸納法的</b></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">問題</span></span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">◎</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">理性的工作是告訴我們做哪些事情可以滿足哪些慾望,做決定不是理性的分內事</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span><b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">休謨</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">(</span><span lang="EN-US">Hume</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">1711-1776)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這樣說</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">「</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">理性只能告訴我們什麼東西是事實</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">但是事實沒辦法引起</span><span lang="EN-US">(cause)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">行為,只有情欲</span><span lang="EN-US">(passions)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、慾望</span><span lang="EN-US">(desires)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和</span>
<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">傾向</span><span lang="EN-US">(inclinations)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">才能引起行為。<span style="color: red;">因此,決定行為的是慾望和其它的心理狀態,而不是理性</span>。</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">」</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">◎</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">18</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀<b>休謨</b>就曾經談過:<b>歸納法</b>跟演繹法非常不一樣。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">演繹法</span></b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是一種邏輯論證:如果前提</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">(</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">起始假設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是真的,結論便必定為真。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">例如,「所有人終究會死」與「蘇格拉底是人」是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">個前提,根據前提可以得到合理的結論「蘇格拉底終究會死</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。演繹的想法是:結論的正確性已經以某種方式包含在前提之中,而邏輯只是把結論抓出來而已。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">歸納法</span></b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">與此大不相同。歸納法通常是從一組觀察資料來論證出一個普遍性的結論。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">例如,</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">盒子裡面一共有</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">個雞蛋,前</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">個雞蛋都臭掉了,那剩下那個雞蛋也是臭的。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">例如,如果你注意到連續</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">4</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">週的星期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一都在下雨,你可能會把這項觀察普遍化,說星期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">總是下雨。這就是歸納法</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">但只要出現</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">個乾爽的星期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,星期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">總是下雨的主張就不成立了。就算你做了許多觀察,就好像觀察白天鵝一樣,只要</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">個例子牴觸你的普遍化主張,便能讓你受挫,譬如</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">隻不是白色的天鵝。這就是歸納問題;</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">很有名的「白天鵝</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」的命題,就算你已看過千萬隻白天鵝,一隻非白天鵝便足以讓過去努力破功。</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: red;">唯一沒有例外的事情就是永遠有例外,例外之所以是例外,就是因為它沒出現過,否則它就不叫例外了</span>。 </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所以歸納法<span lang="EN-US">.</span>也不很可靠,仰賴它去證成假說便會造成問題。<span lang="EN-US">.</span>但我們時時刻刻都在用歸納法,然而我們似乎不是完全有理由對這種推論方法寄予這麼大信心。我們假定自然界有模式,但那些模式實際上可能存在、也可能不存在。 </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span lang="EN-US"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj38FofmZq__D-VUrsWDs9MqZ1IantjE6rxPRYg0_RLkGJxGUG364TgANo2Py2DSAD-YcNOdcB7BaJZmjrf-f66FT4MzbkLMtMGjULA92DrUo38KKvWJ6rDS7AoJ_Q6dPavJweTT5gLS7Ik/s1600/Karl+Raimund+Popper.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="187" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj38FofmZq__D-VUrsWDs9MqZ1IantjE6rxPRYg0_RLkGJxGUG364TgANo2Py2DSAD-YcNOdcB7BaJZmjrf-f66FT4MzbkLMtMGjULA92DrUo38KKvWJ6rDS7AoJ_Q6dPavJweTT5gLS7Ik/s400/Karl+Raimund+Popper.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></b></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span lang="EN-US"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">【哲思3】</span></b></span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">巴柏</b></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span lang="EN-US">(Sir Karl Raimund Popper</span>,<span lang="EN-US">1902-1994)</span></b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span lang="EN-US">(P.177)</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: red;">巴柏是實證主義的解毒劑</span>。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span lang="EN-US">(P.178)</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">巴柏</span></b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">相信任何烏托邦的觀念必然屬於封閉式,因為它會窒息自我駁斥的能力。認為</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">「</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一個良好的社會模式不容遭到否證</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">」</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這種簡單的觀念會形成極權主義。</span> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">(P.175)<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">關於<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">歸納法的問題</b>,<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">巴柏</b>提出了一個重要的答案。巴柏認為理論只有</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">類:</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、理論經過檢定,並以適當的方式遭到否證,已經知道是錯的。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、還不知道是錯的理論或者還沒遭到否證的理論,但是會被證明是錯的。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">理論沒辦法被證實。因為我們永遠不會知道是不是所有的天鵝都是白的。我們的檢定機制可能有缺點,但是我們可以提出「有隻黑天鵝」這樣的陳述。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不屬於這</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">類的理論不是理論。一項理論如果不提出它會被視為錯誤的一組條件,就叫作騙術</span><span lang="EN-US">― </span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">少了那些條件,我們不可能否證它。</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">(P.176)</span><span style="font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">知識總能隨著增量資訊而增加的觀念</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: small; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">― </span><span style="font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這是<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">統計</b>推論的基礎。有些時候或許是這樣沒錯,但巴柏拒絕盲目接受,因為我們不知道是哪些時候。</span><span style="font-size: small; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">…</span><span style="font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">巴柏擔心某類知識不會隨著資訊增多而增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: small; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">― </span><span style="font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">但到底是哪一類,我們無法斷定。<span style="color: red;">知識和發現,在處理我們已知的事物上,沒有比處理我們不知道的事物重要。我覺得這對我們這些交易人來說很重要</span>。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">(P.177)</span><span style="font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="background-color: yellow;">我也是<b>極度天真的否證論者</b>。因為當這種人,我能生存下去。我所有的投機活動根據巴柏的學說,我不讓任何一個稀有事件傷害我。事實上,我但願所有可以想像得到的稀有事件都幫助我</span>。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2012/11/blog-post.html">【隨機的致富陷阱】摘要與心得 (2012)</a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://calvin-scyen.blogspot.tw/2015/10/6.html">《隨機騙局》摘要6-1<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">【哲思】</span><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope"><span class="keep msg-text-body _compile ng-scope">實證主義的問題</span></span></span>→<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">歸納法的</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">問題</span>→</span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="background-color: yellow;">否證論者</span></span></a></span></span>
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Calvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07054281725305657232noreply@blogger.com2